Moody's: latest economic data could increase Harris' chances of victory

On Oct. 31 - While Trump has a clear advantage in the prediction market, those betting on Trump may want to consider the latest economic data that suggests Harris could benefit from substantial tailwinds as the incumbent party nominee, a conclusion analysts at Moody's Analytics have drawn based on research from past presidential elections, said Justin Begley, an economist at Moody's Analytics Inc. （Justin Begley, an economist at Moody's Analytics, said, “Analytical modeling suggests that this election is still up in the air, as four states - Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, which collectively account for 57 electoral votes - are considered to be close calls. -are considered winnable.” A recent simulation conducted for clients showed that mortgage rates, which have fallen significantly since last year, and the continued decline in gasoline prices are improving Harris' chances of winning. Rising household incomes may also be helping to improve Harris' odds. Says Begley, “Harris' projected popular vote advantage nationwide has increased by an average of 0.2 percentage points, largely due to upward revisions to our projections of real household incomes in each state.” Results from 1,000 runs of the model show a 55.5 percent probability of a Harris victory.