Greeks.live: Most market participants are cautious about betting on this month's market trends, and the prevailing sentiment is to continue to wait and see

Adam, a macro analyst at Greeks.live, posted on X stating that the U.S. economic data for October was strong and market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on November 8th have significantly decreased. Currently, based on the calculation of 30-day federal funds futures prices, the market expectation for a next cut of 25Bp is 85%, while the probability of no rate cut is expected to be 15%. This data is significantly lower than last month.

At the same time, in recent days, Trump's chances of being elected president are noticeably increasing and the balance of power in America's election on November 5th seems to be tilting towards Trump. Looking at options data, market volatility expectations for October are very low with an at-the-money implied volatility (IV) already below 45%, while one week later - by November 8th - it stands at around 55%. This suggests that most market participants are cautious about betting on this month's situation and continuing to watch is currently mainstream sentiment.