Bitcoin Price Forecast: Middle East Tensions Spark Market Uncertainty – Could BTC Be a Safe Haven?

As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heighten, Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to break above $61,250, reflecting the broader market’s uncertainty.

The global crypto market cap fell by 1.44% to $2.13 trillion in the last 24 hours, largely impacted by Iranian missile strikes on Israel in response to Israeli military actions. The conflict has intensified with the United States sending military support to Israel, further unsettling global markets.

Despite the negative sentiment, JP Morgan analysts highlight that geopolitical instability and the approaching US presidential elections might encourage investors to seek safety in assets like Bitcoin and gold, boosting demand for these traditional hedges.

Bitcoin May Benefit from Geopolitical Tensions and U.S. Election Uncertainty

Despite a bearish crypto market, Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick sees the ongoing Middle East conflict as a potential buying opportunity for Bitcoin.

With prices under $60,000, increased open interest in December options, totalling 80,000 contracts, shows market optimism.

Recent events, including Iran’s missile attacks on Israel, led to a 5% drop in Bitcoin’s price this week. However, Kendrick believes Bitcoin’s true value is its ability to hedge against traditional financial risks like bank collapses and U.S. Treasury concerns.

Political uncertainty in the U.S., particularly around the upcoming presidential election, could further support Bitcoin. With rising chances of a Trump victory, Kendrick suggests Bitcoin may gain in the post-election environment.

Key Points:

• Current Opportunity: Geopolitical tensions may create buying opportunities.
• Future Potential: U.S. political uncertainty could drive demand for Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.

JP Morgan analysts echo this sentiment, suggesting geopolitical and election-related risks may boost investor interest in safe-haven assets like Bitcoin and gold.

Bitcoin Price Could Dip Below $60K Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty, but $250K in 2025 Still Possible

Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick cautions that geopolitical uncertainty might drive Bitcoin’s price below $60,000 in the short term.

Despite being seen as a hedge against inflation, Bitcoin’s price could react sharply to global events. Kendrick views this potential dip as temporary without impacting the long-term outlook.

However, the options market has a positive outlook. Increased call options for $80,000 by December 2024 indicate trader optimism about a recovery.

Kendrick suggests that if market conditions align—such as ETF approvals and growing institutional interest—Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2025.

Key Points:

• Short-Term Concern: Bitcoin may drop below $60,000 due to geopolitical risks.
• Long-Term Potential: Price could reach $250,000 by 2025 with favourable conditions.

Despite short-term risks, the long-term fundamentals remain bullish, which might support future recoveries and sustained investor confidence.

Bitcoin Technical Outlook

Bitcoin remains under pressure as it hovers below the critical $61,107 resistance level, highlighting persistent selling interest at higher price levels.

The asset is currently caught in a descending channel pattern, indicating a bearish trend that could intensify if prices break below the immediate support at $59,989.

Such a move may lead to a decline toward the next support at $59,443, which could reinforce the negative sentiment in the market.

On the upside, Bitcoin would need to break above $61,107, which coincides with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) acting as a dynamic resistance.

Bitcoin Price Chart: Source: Tradingview

A successful move above this level might trigger a potential retest of $61,684 and extend further to $62,176, suggesting a shift in momentum.

Technical indicators also reflect a cautious outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 42.86, indicating a slight bearish bias.

Until Bitcoin decisively breaks above the downward trendline resistance at $61,107, bears are expected to maintain control of the market.

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