Here’s Why Bitcoin’s Uptober Is Already Off the Rails

• Crypto has had its worst start to October in a Bitcoin-led rout.
• Market optimism saw nearly half a billion dollars caught on the wrong side of the trade.
• The anticipated Uptober rally faces a mix of geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges.

In recent weeks, the crypto market has been awash with excitement marked by soaring asset prices as monetary policy developments in the U.S., China, and Japan sparked optimism of a deluge of liquidity flowing into risk markets.

Naturally, many expected the price rally to continue in October, a month that had earned the nickname “Uptober” for being a historically bullish period for crypto assets. However, the market has not had the start many hoped for amid a Bitcoin -led rout.

Bitcoin Kicks Off Uptober with Slip and Stutter

Bitcoin has posted an average gain of 23% in October in the past 11 years, with only two Octobers out of this period ending in loss, but the asset’s recent performance has left many wondering if that tally is set to hit three Octobers.

In what Presto Research described as crypto’s worst start to the month since 2013, Bitcoin on October 1, 2024, at one point fell as much as 6.5% from highs above the $64,000 price point to trade around the $60,100 level. Typically, the broader crypto market followed suit with major assets like Ethereum , Solana , and XRP , posting between 8% and 10% losses at some point.

This price action, which led to over $450 million in long liquidations on the day per CoinGlass data , begs the question of what happened to the anticipated Uptober rally.

Middle East Tensions Spook Investors

The recent crypto market jitters come as increasing whispers of war in the Middle East have dampened the appetite for perceived high-risk investments. On Tuesday, Iran fired nearly 200 missiles at Israel to avenge the recent killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and an Iranian commander in Lebanon. Further stirring fears, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to launch an Israeli retaliation against the Iranian attack despite sparse reports of casualties.

Beyond the conflict in the Middle East, investors are also keenly awaiting the U.S. jobs reports slated for Friday, October 4. The reports could offer insight into whether and how rapidly the Federal Reserve will continue its dovish pivot.

On Wednesday, October 2, Bitcoin pared some of its losses to trade above the $61,000 price point as the market shook some of the initial panic sparked by the Iranian attack.

On the Flipside

• Several crypto analysts maintain that there is still hope for a Bitcoin Uptober rally, noting that it often does not begin from the first day of the month.
• Unlike Bitcoin, Gold benefitted from the recent market panic, again underlining its place as the preferred safe haven asset.

Why This Matters

Recent market events remind investors that historical results do not guarantee future performance. Investors must consider several factors to make informed decisions.

Read this for more on Bitcoin’s recent run:
Uptober Stalls as Iran-Israel Clash Sends Investors to Gold

Stay up to date with the latest in the Tigran Gambaryan detention saga:
Yuki Gambaryan Laments “Fear of Losing Tigran” in Wrenching Interview