Analysts see bitcoin poised for breakout in Q4 as institutional demand and innovation fuel crypto surge

As the fourth quarter of 2024 approaches, some analysts predict continued price growth for Bitcoin BTC +0.77% and the broader cryptocurrency market, driven by institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors.

"Amid macro shifts and institutional adoption, digital assets are poised for continued growth in Q4, as sovereign balance sheets face pressure, investors will seek long-term hedges like bitcoin," CF Benchmarks Lead Research Analyst Gabriel Selby said in a note sent to The Block.

 

Ryan Lee, Bitget Research Chief Analyst, is equally bullish on bitcoin’s trajectory heading into the final quarter. "The expected performance of bitcoin in October is anticipated to surpass that of September, with a target price range of $58,000 to $72,000," he said. Lee pointed to several compelling signs from the derivatives market, including multiple instances of negative funding rates in bitcoin futures throughout September, coupled with the Fear Greed Index lingering in the "extreme fear" zone. "Historically, these factors often precede significant rebounds," he said.

 

Institutional players, Lee added, are set to be a significant driver of this growth. "MicroStrategy continued to sell bonds in September to purchase more bitcoin, and bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw continued net inflows following interest rate cuts. This indicates that institutions are optimistic about the market outlook. With ongoing institutional buying, bitcoin is likely to break previous highs," Lee said.

Selby noted that the U.S. regulatory landscape could undergo significant changes after the November 5 presidential election, fostering an environment ripe for crypto innovation. "We see conditions fostering investor confidence and driving capital formation," he said.

Looking ahead, Selby identified several trends that could accelerate crypto adoption, particularly on the Ethereum network .

 

"Layer 2 scaling solutions are rising to meet the growing demand for Ethereum block space, while traditional financial institutions explore the tokenization of real-world assets on Ethereum," said Selby, adding the prospects of intersecting with another technology attracting investors. "The emergence of generative artificial intelligence and the accompanying demand for GPU computing power stand to benefit decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePINs), which democratize access to high-quality computing resources."

In 2024, BlackRock launched a tokenized money market mutual fund on the Ethereum network. Selby noted that this development marks only the beginning of the potential for tokenized assets to integrate with decentralized finance (DeFi), enabling stocks, bonds, and real estate to be used as collateral or traded on decentralized exchanges.