• Bitcoin has historically plunged in September during 8 of the last 11 years.
  • October has seen BTC prices rise in 9 out of 11 years, showing an 82% bullish trend.
  • These patterns offer insights for guiding Bitcoin’s seasonal market movements.

According to  Look On Chain, BTC performance has shown different seasonal trends over the past decade, with data showing a periodic pattern of bearish activity in September followed by a bullish rebound in October.

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Seasonal Trends in Bitcoin’s Performance

According to LookOnChain post on the X Space, from 2013 to 2023, BTC prices dropped in September during those 8 years, representing 73% of the time. Contrarily, the cryptocurrency saw a rise in October, marking an 82% chance of price increases during that month.

September is usually bearish, while October tends to be bullish.

Historical price data shows that from 2013 to 2023, $BTC declined in September during 8 of those years (73%) and rose in October during 9 of those years (82%). pic.twitter.com/dnzc3lowTa

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) September 3, 2024

Bitcoin has historically faced challenges during September, notable downturns include a 12.14% drop in 2021, a 16.06% decline in 2019, and an 18.59% fall in 2014. Despite these declines, there have been a few anomalies where BTC price increased. In 2016, Bitcoin recorded a 6.42% rise while in 2023, a fair 3.82% increase was noticed. 

October’s Bullish Rebound

Different from September, October has been a bullient month for Bitcoin. The data has shown that in 9 of the 11 years analyzed, Bitcoin’s price increased during October. Some of the most important gains recorded included a 40.99% uptick in 2021, a 46.49% rise in 2017, and a 53.81% increase in 2013. Only a few years shifted from this bullish trend, with October 2018 seeing a small decline of 4.44%, and October 2014 noticing a decrease of 11.63%. 

October has been a month of gains, with Bitcoin’s price rebounding and often setting the stage for further bullish activity in the year’s final quarter. This pattern suggests that market participants may view October as a month of opportunity, driving buying pressure and pushing prices higher.

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