Will Bitcoin Break Out of Its Range as U.S. Election and Economic Data Loom?

Bitcoin has recently stayed in a relatively narrow range. This week the asset failed to break the $65,000 mark and instead returned to the $58,000-$60,000 range, erasing last week's gains.

This was expected by market watchers, especially after four consecutive days of outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.

According to many, the broader macroeconomic environment is largely to blame for these outflows. U.S. inflation came in a bit weaker than expected at 2.5% year-over-year versus the 2.6% analysts had forecast.

This softer inflation figure is pushing the Federal Reserve towards a more accommodative stance in the next quarter. While equities have rallied, with the Dow hitting record highs, Bitcoin remains largely unaffected. The crypto market appears to be in stall mode, waiting for a significant event to trigger a move.

The upcoming non-farm payrolls (NFP) report could prove to be that catalyst. If the numbers fall short of expectations, it could strengthen the case for a U.S. rate cut in the fourth quarter. Current odds point to a 33% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 67% probability of a 50 basis point cut. However, the impact on Bitcoin remains uncertain.

Given the upcoming election, the market is unlikely to stabilize. Some analysts predict more volatile price action as the election approaches, which will continue the up and down trend we are currently seeing.

Historically, September has been a sluggish month for Bitcoin, with little movement and mostly range trading.