Bitcoin ETFs see neutral flows as market awaits Fed’s 75bps rate cut

Bitcoin’s week ended on a flat note with the price settling around $58,425, a slight dip of 0.5% from the previous week. It was a rollercoaster ride for the cryptocurrency, kicking off strong and reaching $61,575 on Tuesday.

But just as quickly, the price slid down to $56,000 by Thursday. A small recovery by Friday and over the weekend brought it back to where it started. 

This back-and-forth action was nothing new for August, as volatility has been the norm, yet Bitcoin’s price has stayed relatively stable for two weeks straight.

The lukewarm price action showed up in the neutral flows into Bitcoin Spot ETFs, which saw a net inflow of $32 million. The price may not have moved much, but trading activity was far from boring. 

Despite August’s reputation for low trading volumes, last week alone saw around $7 billion in cumulative trading volume across Bitcoin Spot ETFs, averaging $1.4 billion daily.

Trading volume defies the August drought

The past few weeks have been a hive of activity with $10.7 billion and $12.5 billion in trading volumes, respectively. Bitcoin Spot ETFs are on a tear , clocking in over $30 billion in trading volume since the start of August. 

These are numbers we haven’t seen since April, a time when investors were more bullish. This is a sharp contrast to the typical summer slowdown, especially in Q3.

While Bitcoin has been holding its ground, Ethereum (ETH) Spot ETFs have been bleeding out. Last week saw another $14 million in outflows, keeping in line with the neutral trend that’s been dragging on for a while now. 

Total outflows since these ETFs launched have now reached about $420 million. However, there might be a silver lining here. The Grayscale Ethereum ETF (ETHE) has seen a slowdown in outflows recently. 

Some market watchers are saying that if Ethereum gets a bit of positive momentum, we could see these outflows turn into inflows. 

That’s exactly what happened with Bitcoin Spot ETFs back in Q1, and it could be just what Ethereum needs to get back on track. For now, though, Bitcoin is where the action is.

All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve and its upcoming decisions on interest rates. There’s been a lot of chatter about a potential 50 basis points (bps) cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September. 

But as the data rolled in, those expectations have changed. Now, the market is betting on a more modest 25bps cut in September, with two more 25bps cuts likely coming in November and December.