Bitcoin’s Resilience: Navigating Dominance and Diminishing Returns

Bitcoin is the world’s leading cryptocurrency, making up over  53.4%  of the total market capitalization. Initially, Bitcoin was nearly the only cryptocurrency, with dominance close to 100%. Over time, this dominance has fluctuated due to the rise of altcoins, changing investor sentiment, technological developments, and market cycles.

The introduction of altcoins like Litecoin and Ripple in 2014 began to reduce Bitcoin’s dominance, but it still remained above 80–90% for a while. By 2017, the surge of altcoins and ICOs, especially Ethereum, caused Bitcoin’s dominance to  drop  to about 37%.

From 2018 to 2019, Bitcoin’s dominance ranged between 60–70%. The rise of DeFi and NFTs further reduced it to around 40% by mid-2021 as investors diversified.

Today, Bitcoin faces challenges from new blockchain solutions and expanding altcoin use cases, yet it remains strong as “digital gold.” We’ll explore where Bitcoin stands today in terms of market dominance and its returns compared to other assets.

It’s bitcoin’s market again

Bitcoin  dominance  is an important metric for understanding the overall health of the cryptocurrency market. Investors monitor it to gain insights into the market’s current state.

This crypto cycle was confirmed with Bitcoin prices reaching new all-time highs before halving for the first time in history. However, we’ve experienced five months of stagnation as prices gradually declined from this early peak.

These months of pullbacks, fake-outs, and volatility have led to a rise in Bitcoin’s market dominance. During economic uncertainty or market volatility, investors often view Bitcoin as a safer asset compared to altcoins.

Source: The Block

Positive regulatory news, increased institutional investment, and broader economic trends, such as inflation concerns or currency devaluation, have boosted investor confidence, leading to a rise in Bitcoin’s price performance.

Source: The Block

Bitcoin’s Strong Performance Despite Diminishing Returns

In its early days, Bitcoin delivered remarkable returns due to its low starting price and potential for growth. For example, in 2011, Bitcoin’s price surged from just a few cents to about $20, achieving returns of over 30,000%. However, expecting similar gains today is unrealistic, given Bitcoin’s current maturity and higher price levels. As the market has matured, it’s harder for Bitcoin to grow as quickly as it did in the early days. Nowadays, the returns are more in line with those of more established asset classes.

Since 2022, Bitcoin’s annual returns have remained below 100%, highlighting the shift from its previous explosive growth.

Despite this period of stagnation, Bitcoin’s performance over the past year has outpaced most major assets, with the  exception  of Nvidia. Additionally, Bitcoin provides strong risk-adjusted returns, indicating that, while its growth may be slower, it remains a competitive investment choice compared to other assets.

Source: Econometrics

Bitcoin is doing better than other assets because of a few reasons. Many investors see it as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, especially with concerns about fiat currency losing value. More institutions are  buying into Bitcoin , which adds to its credibility. Its limited supply due to halving events makes it scarce, increasing its value as demand rises, and technological improvements and a supportive regulatory environment also make it more attractive.

There is also the  thin market liquidity , which suggests that Bitcoin still has significant growth potential. By the end of July, Bitcoin’s value had increased by 53%, which is in line with its typical growth patterns. This means there’s no need for concern about the recent lack of price action since March; Bitcoin is behaving as expected.

Source: Econometrics

For Bitcoin to move to its next growth phase, it will likely need a macroeconomic trigger. As Bitcoin becomes more established as an asset for institutions and some nations, macroeconomic factors play a more important role in its performance.

At the  recent  Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Jerome Powell indicated that interest rates would remain stable but mentioned the possibility of rate cuts later this year, potentially in September. Rate cuts usually boost market liquidity, and risk assets like Bitcoin tend to benefit from increased liquidity, as historical trends have shown.

Source: @Therationalroot

From a long-term perspective, several signs indicate that Bitcoin is just starting to gain momentum:

• The holder base is stronger than ever, with weak hands long gone and permanent holder addresses  increasing .
• BTC and ETH exchange balances are at  historic lows , reflecting a trend toward long-term holding.
• BTC miners have  exhausted  their BTC supply, reducing sell pressure and supporting future price stability.
• The BTC and ETH spot ETF are already trading, signalling increased institutional interest and long-term investment.
• The Bitcoin market has already  absorbed  most of the BTC in sell-side pressure sourced from the German Government and other entities.
• Macro factors like upcoming rate cuts, QE and pro-crypto regulations are creating favourable conditions for long-term growth.
• Innovations in blockchain technology continue to attract attention and investment, bolstering the market’s long-term potential.

Although there are challenges ahead, these obstacles present opportunities for investors who recognize Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

Bitcoin’s adoption pattern is similar to the Internet’s early days. In 1999, the Internet had 250 million users, and today it boasts over 4 billion. If Bitcoin continues on this path, it could reach over 1 billion investors by 2027.

Source: Eaglebrook

Holding onto your investments through ups and downs isn’t easy, but that’s what makes it potentially rewarding. It takes strong belief, emotional steadiness, and the ability to handle financial hits. Currently, the demand for Bitcoin is relatively low compared to its global potential. Adoption often happens in waves, and the next surge could be the most significant yet.

Source: BitcoinStrategy

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