QCP Market Update- 15 Aug 24

BTC reclaimed $60K overnight and is stabilizing at these levels, fully reversing last Monday’s sell-off. BTC even ticked higher when Bitgo moved $2B of Mt. Gox BTC last night. This could signal that the market is beginning to disregard this supply factor.

ETH spot ETFs continue to attract inflows, marking a 2-day winning streak and drawing $24.3 million in net inflows on Tuesday.

Last night’s softer US PPI print shifted market expectations towards a 50bps rate cut in September by the Fed, with the probability now at 52.5% for 50bps versus 47.5% for 25bps.

All eyes are on tonight’s US CPI print. A soft CPI could support a recovery in risk assets like equities and crypto on the back of anticipated Fed rate cuts.

Trade Idea

With consistent ETF inflows and BlackRock buying the dip last week, crypto seems relatively well supported. However with no major catalysts on the horizon, we anticipate limited major breakouts until Q4.

PRINCIPAL PROTECTED BTC RANGE ACCRUAL

• Coupon Rate: 19% pa in USD if BTC/USD fixes at-or-within the range 56k to 66k, 0% otherwise
• Maturity: 8NOV24
• Coupon Frequency: Weekly from 23AUG24
• Full redemption 100% in USDC at maturity

Spot ref: 61,000