Review of this week | The Bitcoin balance of the "German Government" address has been exhausted; Compound core team members resigned and founded new

BlockBeats will organize the key industry news content of the week (7.8-7.14) in this article, and recommend in-depth articles to help readers better understand the market and learn about industry trends.

Important News Review

Trump was shot in the right ear during his speech and raised his right fist when he left

Trump was shot in the head while speaking at a campaign rally. The live video showed that Trump was injured in the right ear, but it seemed that he was not seriously injured. While being covered by security, Trump raised his right fist to cheer people up. In his first speech after the attack, Trump said that the bullet pierced the upper part of his right ear and thanked the US Secret Service. At the same time, he expressed condolences to the audience who died and said that he knew nothing about the gunman at present.

Trump said in the article: "I want to thank the United States Secret Service and all law enforcement officers for their quick response to the shooting that just occurred in Butler, Pennsylvania. Most importantly, I want to express my condolences to the family of the person who was killed at the rally and the family of the other person who was seriously injured. It is incredible that such an act has occurred in our country. At present, there is no information about the gunman, and he is dead. I was hit by a bullet that penetrated the upper part of my right ear. I immediately knew something was wrong because I heard a whistling sound, a gunshot, and immediately felt the bullet tear the skin and bleed profusely, so I realized what was happening at that time."

US President Biden said, "Political violence is inappropriate. It seems that Trump is in good condition at the moment. I hope to contact Trump tonight and talk to him." When asked whether the Trump incident was an assassination, he said, "I have my own opinion, but I don't have any facts." According to data from the prediction market Polymarket, Trump's chances of winning the US presidential election have soared to 70%, and Biden's chances of winning the election have dropped to 16%.

Trump will give a speech at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference

On July 11, Trump will give a speech at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference.

Compound founder, CEO and other team members announced their resignation and founded a new project Legend

Compound CEO @jaysonhobby posted on social media that he will resign from the Compound team with Compound founder Geoffrey Hayes and former Compound member Mykel Pereira, and co-found a new project Legend. It is reported that Legend aims to bring 100 million new users to the chain by building the world's best DeFi interface and improving user experience.

Solana Blinks Ecosystem Meme Project SEND Releases Token Economics, 25% for Airdrops

25% for Blinks builders, Send it NFT holders, and top Solana communities;

15% for early SEND community supporters;

10% for initial liquidity;

15% for core contributors;

35% for future grants and ecosystem development funds.

50% of the supply will be released in the next few days, including initial airdrops, initial liquidity, and early supporters, and the remaining 50% will vest linearly over 3 years starting on August 1, 2024.

The Bitcoin balance of the "German Government" address has been exhausted; Mt.Gox will be the next strong seller, which may bring $4.62 billion in selling before November

On July 13, according to Arkham monitoring, the Bitcoin in the "German Government" address was completely exhausted after sending 3846.05 BTC (about $223.81 million) to Flow Traders and 139Po (probably institutional deposits/OTC services). The current Bitcoin balance in the address is 0.

According to Trader T’s prediction on the X platform, after a week of strong selling by the German government, Mt.Gox will be the next strong seller. Mt.Gox should repay a total of 14,100 bitcoins, and the repayment ratio should be no less than 80% before November this year. The repayment discount rate is 89%, so Mt.Gox will sell at most 100,392 BTC before November. Given its dispersed ownership, the possibility of large-scale liquidation is low. According to the worst-case scenario, Mt.Gox will sell 80% of its bitcoins, which may bring $4.62 billion in liquidation pressure.

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Viewpoint: Bitcoin is in the critical bull-bear stage of this cycle

On July 10, according to data from CryptoQuant, the BTC profit and loss index is currently hovering near its 365-day moving average, which usually represents an upcoming major adjustment or the beginning of a sustained bear market. The previous death cross (downward cross) of the data was a precursor to the deep declines that began in May and November 2021. In addition, CryptoQuant's Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator is also approaching a key level that indicates a bear market. The lack of growth in Tether’s (USDT) market cap also suggests that a rebound may be difficult to achieve, as historical recoveries can almost all be attributed to rising stablecoin liquidity. However, data from CryptoQuant also shows that Bitcoin whales have been increasing their holdings during the recent downtrend, with whale holders increasing their holdings by 6.3% in the past month, the fastest pace since April 2023. The German government’s massive sell-off also appears to be coming to an end (currently 13,100 remaining). Other positive factors, such as the US-approved Ethereum spot ETF and the continued growth of US stock indexes, suggest that despite signs of weakness in the short term, the rise will continue in 2024. Related reading: "Reflections on "Garbage Time": Taking Stock of Potential Opportunities in the Second Half of the Year"

Top Trader Predicts: Most Altcoins Have Bottom

On July 10, Eugene Ng Ah Sio, a top trader on Binance Futures, wrote, "Boldly predict that most altcoins have bottomed out. Open interest levels have completely collapsed, many tokens are in complete apathy, and my shopping list has stretched to my toes. I will be busy looking for the bottom and be the first to see it."

Telegram's native Meme coin DOGS launches point rewards, and the built-in Telegram Stars purchase function has aroused community doubts

On July 10, Telegram's native Meme coin DOGS launched point rewards. Telegram users can get point rewards based on the length of time they create and use their Telegram accounts. The meme has caused heated discussions in the community, and many KOLs have shared and claimed links on X. The meme coin DOGS is inspired by Spotty, the favorite mascot of Telegram's founder Pavel Durov. On July 12, Telegram's native meme project DOGS now has a built-in Telegram Stars purchase function, with an exchange rate of 1:1, and Telegram Stars can be purchased directly with fiat currency. Telegram Stars are virtual items that allow users to purchase digital goods and services from robots and applets within the Telegram ecosystem, and give gifts to content creators on the Telegram platform. This move has caused widespread discussion in the crypto community, saying that this may be an official sale of coins, and the total amount of tokens can be issued indefinitely, which has aroused community doubts. Related reading: What is the new meme DOGS on TON that is sweeping Twitter? 》、 《VCs are all watching the TON ecosystem, but why are they just watching but not investing?》

Data: 97% of ARB holders are currently losing money

On July 9, IntoTheBlock posted on social media that according to the platform's data, although Arbitrum is one of the leading Ethereum L2s, ARB's price performance has been weak, and 97% of holders are currently losing money. Related reading: 《97% of ARB holders are losing money, what's the problem?》

JPMorgan: Cryptocurrency market expected to rebound in August

On July 11, JPMorgan said in its latest research report that the crypto market is expected to rebound in August. Due to the liquidation of creditors of Mt. Gox and Gemini and the sale of cryptocurrencies seized from criminal activities by the German government, the reserves of Bitcoin on major trading platforms have declined in the past month, causing the bank to lower its year-to-date crypto market net flow estimate from US$12 billion to US$8 billion. The report pointed out that liquidation activities should end this month and the market will recover from August.

DeBank has opened the initial DeBank XP airdrop application for one month

On July 8, DeBank announced that the DeBank XP snapshot was taken at 8:00 am on July 4, Beijing time. All active addresses have the opportunity to claim the initial XP airdrop. DeBank has distributed XP to addresses that hold assets greater than 0 and meet any of the following conditions: 1. Active on the chain in 2024 (at least one transaction has been initiated) 2. Active on DeBank in 2024. The initial XP of each address will be confirmed by its on-chain assets, credit, and Web3 social ranking on DeBank. The XP claim page is already available on DeBank, and the claim will last for one month.

Fed Powell: The next policy move is unlikely to be a rate hike

On July 9, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that recent labor data does show that the economy is cooling. The labor market seems to have fully returned to balance. The next policy move is unlikely to be a rate hike. "Fed Mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos said that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that the Fed is paying more attention to when to cut interest rates given that inflation has resumed its decline.

The annual rate of the unadjusted core CPI in June in the United States was 3.3%, and the core CPI in June fell to a three-year low

On July 11, the annual rate of the unadjusted core CPI in June in the United States was 3.3%, lower than the market expectation of 3.4%, and fell to the lowest level since April 2021. The monthly rate of the core CPI after seasonal adjustment in June was 0.1%, the lowest level since August 2021, and the market expected 0.2%. After the data was released, traders expected that the Federal Reserve had a 25% chance of a third 25 basis point rate cut this year.

Fuel launches a points program to obtain potential incentives before the mainnet launch

On July 8, Ethereum modular execution layer Fuel announced the launch of the Fuel Points program, an opportunity to obtain future rewards as the Fuel Mainnet launch progresses. The Fuel Points program is designed to reward everyone who contributes to the growth of the Fuel network and ecosystem.

Half of the top ten 24-hour trading volume on Binance are MEME coins

On July 9, half of the top ten 24-hour trading volume on Binance were MEME tokens, ranking as follows: PEPE (991 million); DOGE (742 million); NOT (651 million); WIF (548 million); BONK (522 million).

Bloomberg ETF Analyst: US SEC May Approve Spot Ethereum ETF on July 18

On July 11, Bloomberg ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas predicted that the US SEC may approve the spot Ethereum ETF on July 18. Related reading: 《Which tokens can be ambushed before the Ethereum spot ETF is passed? 》

This week's hot articles

《What is the new meme DOGS on TON that is sweeping Twitter? 》

This week, a simple black and white dog picture went viral on social networks. This is a MEME coin with Telegram and TON concepts. Enter the DOGS robot channel, and it will automatically analyze your Telegram account. The longer the account is created and the more active it is, the more points you will get. Telegram Premium accounts can also get extra points. In addition, you can also get extra points by inviting friends to join. With the recent explosion of TON ecosystem, the launch of DOGS was somewhat unexpected, but also reasonable. Its Telegram channel attracted 770,000 followers in a short period of time, which is a very rapid growth, which is quite rare in such airdrops in the history of Web3.

《Solana ETF rumors "leaked", which tokens are expected to soar》

At the beginning of this year, the approval of the Bitcoin ETF caused a huge response in the crypto market, followed by the approval of the Ethereum ETF, which greatly boosted the market's confidence in cryptocurrency ETFs. Against this background, today's Solana ETF rumors also appear more credible and eye-catching. If the Solana ETF is really approved, it may have a profound impact on the entire Solana ecosystem. This article analyzes in detail the Solana ecosystem tokens with the greatest potential in the current market, and provides corresponding investment strategies to help investors seize opportunities at this possible market turning point.

《Which tokens can be ambushed before the Ethereum spot ETF is passed? 》

After the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the 19b-4 exchange rule change documents for 8 Ethereum spot ETFs in May, major issuers have also submitted updated versions of the S-1 registration application documents. Once approved by the SEC, the Ethereum spot ETF will be open for listing and trading. The revised S-1 application submission deadline was on the 8th. Although it is unclear how quickly the SEC will process it, it is expected to be launched next week or within two weeks. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart previously expected that the Ethereum spot ETF may be listed later this week or the week of July 15. After the Ethereum spot ETF is successfully passed, if funds continue to flow in, Ethereum ecological projects will be expected to benefit. Therefore, this article takes stock of the largest areas and projects in the Ethereum ecosystem for readers' reference.

《100,000 NFTs Sold Out, Solana Blink Ecosystem's First Community Token $SEND Was Born》

Two weeks ago, Solana's Blink became popular. Blink allows on-chain functions to be embedded directly on Twitter, and various on-chain Swap, Mint, Donate and other actions can be completed with one-click tweets. Within a few days of Blink's release, an account named SEND directly demonstrated 50+ use cases that can be done with Blink with detailed, vivid and real descriptions. On July 3, SEND launched 100,000 Send It series NFTs, and combined with Blink's functions, you can directly click the Collect button on the X page to mint. FOMO sentiment was high, send it NFT was quickly sold out, and the floor price also hit new highs. The official introduction revealed that SEND will be a community token to support Solana's Blink ecosystem. Its official website is currently very simple, and no more token details and information about the institutions behind it have been disclosed.

《Why did DEGEN fall so hard? 》

Recently, DEGEN has fallen from a high of 0.06 to 0.005. Many investors are unwilling to believe why a good hand of cards has become the current situation. From the launch of Base at the beginning of the year to the investment in 1confirmation and the rise of the Farcaster ecosystem, the price has also risen from 0.00002 US dollars to 0.06 US dollars in three months. DEGEN is undoubtedly a force that cannot be ignored in the meme craze of this cycle. Although the market conditions in the past two months have been bad and DEGEN has been difficult to survive on its own, Degen has encountered a series of problems in project operations and expectation management during this period, which has affected the market's confidence in DEGEN to a certain extent. As a community-driven project, Degen perfectly illustrates how grassroots entrepreneurs can promote the development of projects and win market recognition with limited resources. However, the complex relationship between Degen and Farcaster or Base also makes Degen destined to not be a simple meme coin.

《VCs are all watching the TON ecosystem, but why are they just watching but not investing?》

Recently, Donald, the founding partner of FA agency D2 Capital, talked to no less than 60 VCs, and he found that none of them was not watching the TON ecosystem. But although they were watching, not many actually invested. RootData shows that the number of financings in the TON ecosystem in the past six months is still in the single digit. In contrast, the Bitcoin ecosystem, which is as popular as TON, has almost had a financing every week in the three hot months. The TON ecosystem is different from any previous ecosystem or narrative, and it will not be a flash in the pan. But in the TON ecosystem with ready-made traffic, the gameplay has also changed. NotCoin, which is listed on Binance and OKX, did not seek VC financing; Catizen achieved $12 million in revenue without issuing coins. More than one investment institution said, "In the future, it is not necessary for all projects invested in the TON ecosystem to issue coins." If crypto VCs look at the TON ecosystem completely according to the inertia of token investment, it may no longer work.

《Copying the "bottom" of miners: From the mining cost, when is it more cost-effective to buy BTC?》

This week, the market continued to pull back and consolidate. As the price of Bitcoin fell, multiple series of mining machines reached the shutdown price, which may be a sign of a "local bottom". On-chain data analyst Murphy used a calculation model to make a more accurate deduction of the BTC mining cost. He believes that mining costs have no effect on the "upper limit" of BTC's price, but will greatly affect the "lower limit" of BTC's price. Therefore, mining costs are of great reference significance to the price trend of Bitcoin. If you buy BTC near the mining cost line every time, it is equivalent to obtaining BTC at a lower cost than the miners. From a medium- and long-term perspective, the certainty of gaining benefits is greater than the uncertainty of taking risks.

《The Hidden Truth: Who is Behind the Use of Bitcoin to Aid Assange to Return to the Country? 》

Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, is also one of the most controversial figures in recent years. He is famous for revealing confidential documents of many governments around the world, covering a variety of fields such as war, diplomacy and politics. Assange's actions have won many supporters who believe that he is a defender of freedom of speech and information transparency, but have also attracted a lot of criticism and legal disputes, especially from the US government. Assange has been in a vortex of legal disputes since 2010. He faced sexual assault charges in Sweden and sought asylum to avoid extradition to the United States after being arrested in the UK, and finally entered the Ecuadorian Embassy in London in 2012. After living in the embassy for seven years, Assange was arrested by British police in 2019 and once again faced the risk of extradition to the United States. Assange recently returned to Australia after a lengthy legal battle with the U.S. government. The return was made possible by an anonymous Bitcoin donation, which eased Assange's financial pressure, but also sparked widespread speculation and discussion about the identity of the donor.

《97% of ARB holders are losing money, what's the problem? 》

Compared with the initial market value of $1.02 billion at the beginning of its launch, the market value of Arbitrum token ARB has now exceeded $2.3 billion, but holders cannot get rid of the dilemma of continued "bleeding". According to IntoTheBlock data, Arbitrum's price performance is weak, with up to 97% of ARB holders currently losing money, only 3% of holders are flat at the current price, and almost no holders are profitable. ARB's months-long decadent trend is directly related to its large token unlocking. Starting in March this year, the Arbitrum team and investors began to unlock a large number of ARB tokens, with a total value of over $2.59 billion. However, the unlocking progress of ARB has only reached 31%. If market liquidity continues to decline, Arbitrum's continued massive unlocking will undoubtedly drive its token price further down.

《Bitcoin ETF is not your friend》

After the launch of Bitcoin ETF, the crypto market ushered in an ETF bull, followed by a 180-degree reversal of regulatory attitude towards Ethereum ETF and the approval of 19b-4s documents, and VanEck also took the opportunity to submit the first Solana ETF application. The market cheered the launch of ETFs, but there were also many voices of concern. @the_smart_ape believed that ETFs actually destroyed the crypto ecosystem. For most crypto users, they hope to achieve the freedom and independence of the payment system through the blockchain introduced by Bitcoin. But BlackRock and the government have opposite goals. In this case, we should keep our Bitcoin and be more vigilant about the future products they announce.

《"Garbage Time" Thinking: Inventory of Potential Opportunities in the Second Half of the Year》

The first half of 24 is about to end in the callback and consolidation of the crypto market. In this cycle, BTC has risen rapidly due to the influence of ETFs, while the performance of altcoins is relatively average. A large number of retail investors who missed out on BTC often complain that they "have no sense of participation". In particular, a large number of altcoins have almost lost their gains in the past six months, but new opportunities may be quietly brewing. This article combines market hotspots and insights into future trends to take stock of the tracks and targets worth paying attention to in the second half of the year.

《Well-known KOL Ignas's Self-narration: How did I become famous? 》

Ignas is a well-known crypto KOL on X with more than 100,000 fans. In this article, he shared his experience of becoming a KOL, how to expand the audience, and some secrets of marketing. Including specific commercialization models, how to promote yourself to others, etc. He admitted that after becoming a KOL, in addition to salary, he has added at least five sources of income (including airdrops).

《The "Pretentious Revelation" of the Cryptocurrency Circle: How to Act as a Well-Behaved Degen When Attending a Conference? 》

This article is a guide to attending crypto conferences written by DavideFi, general manager of Trader Joe, to help BDs and Degens get the most out of crypto events. After reading this article, you will learn how to act as a well-behaved Degen. You need to wear clothes that represent you, attend as many events as possible, don't ask for selfies together, remember faces, have memorable short conversations, etc.

《With fewer than 100 daily active users, Friend.Tech's fall from grace》

As the market goes up and down, the prices of some altcoins have gone forever. Also gone are products and businesses. In the daily question of "What to play today", who will still mention the name Friend.Tech? Currently, Friend.Tech has less than 100 daily active users. In the last round of craze, its daily active users once exceeded 77,000, which means a 99.9% drop in active users. How did Friendtech play such a good hand so badly? In the final analysis, SocialFi products such as FT have not found true product-market fit. They are more like short-term speculative products rather than real needs. Coupled with the bad operations in operations, the ending is reasonable.

《Vitalik ETHCC Speech Highlights: Advocate for Enhanced Automated Defense Against 51% Attacks》

EthCC 7 is a large annual Ethereum technical and community event held in Brussels, Belgium from July 8 to 11. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin mentioned in his keynote speech at EthCC 7 that he is considering the concept of a 51% attack, a state in which a malicious actor (or multiple actors working in coordination) produces more Ethereum blocks. He believes that one of the biggest concerns is that this could lead to censorship on the network. In a potential response to such an attack, he said that honest validators should move to a branch of the chain. The current plan relies mainly on social consensus, with community members working together to reach a branch agreement. He believes that it would be best if this response was largely automated and planned in advance.

《Continue Capital: 10 key understandings you need to know in the cryptocurrency circle》

This article is a summary of 10 key understandings you need to know in the cryptocurrency circle by Continue Capital. Including MEV is a key indicator to measure the long-term value of blockchain, TVL is a misleading indicator that is easily manipulated, FDV can provide a rough estimate of the potential market value of the project, the economic security mechanism is not enough to guarantee the stability of the blockchain, and other security measures are needed, and the success of blockchain projects depends on attracting and supporting developers, rather than relying solely on community users.

《Grab the early dividends, a must-read guide for beginners to play with TON ecosystem》

The TON ecosystem has many projects, which once caused FOMO across the entire network. This article introduces wallets that support TON, as well as popular projects and data query tools in the TON ecosystem. Compared with public chains such as Ethereum and Solana, TON still has a lot of room for improvement, but its value cannot be simply measured by TVL. Relying on the real user group of the Telegram platform is a natural advantage that other public chains cannot match. Under the stimulation and promotion of the TON Foundation, the TON ecosystem has a good development momentum and deserves long-term attention and participation.

《Bottoming out, why did r/datadao, an old AI coin, come back to life? 》

In the crypto market, we have seen too many projects that became popular overnight, then fell from grace, and the community and the coin price fell into complete silence. But there are always some projects that attract a group of solid supporters because of their unique temperament. After the speculators dispersed, they still built with enthusiasm, trying to bring the project back to people's attention. r/datadao is such a project. As the first data DAO, r/datadao was originally intended to fight against the unreasonable ownership and disposal rights of traditional Web2 platforms over user data. This article details its glory and fall, as well as the magical experience of the coin price coming back to life.

《Copy the top 25 cryptocurrencies invested by a16z, how much return can you achieve? 》

Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) is one of the most famous venture capital firms in the world. Their portfolio contains about 50 cryptocurrencies. This article simulates the profit of retail investors copying transactions, that is, investing in the same coins as a16z and selling them after about 5 months. The results show that 11 of the top 25 cryptocurrencies show net growth. If the losses caused by the decline in the prices of other currencies are subtracted, the total sales price is $3158.82. Therefore, the total profit ($3158.82 - $2500) is $658.82, and the return on investment (ROI) is 26.35%

《NEAR's AI Journey and Analysis of 11 Ecosystem Projects》

Some players may not know why NEAR is mentioned when the AI concept is hyped. NEAR started out as an AI company. Co-founder Illia Polosukhin has nearly 10 years of experience in the field of AI and is one of the eight authors of the epoch-making paper "Attention is All You Need". He and another co-founder Alex Skidanov founded NEAR.ai in 2017 to create the first "AI programmer". People can communicate with computers in natural language, and computers will automatically program. Given the limited capabilities of AI models at the time, this attempt ended in failure. In the process, they came into contact with smart contracts and felt that it was an interesting subset of programming, but blockchain technology had too many other challenges. Therefore, NEAR decided to transform its strategy in 2018 and first build a truly useful decentralized development platform, NEAR Protocol. It was originally estimated that this transformation would only take 6 months, after which it could return to the research and development of AI technology, but 6 years have passed in the blink of an eye. Other blockchain projects are now doing AI as a "strategic transformation", while NEAR has finally returned to its old business. NEAR's official website recently announced its AI technology stack, which is divided into three main layers: application layer, infrastructure and model layer, and data layer. Under this three-layer technical architecture, NEAR has gathered 11 of the latest ecological AI projects. This article briefly sorts out these 11 projects to see what NEAR's AI ecological landscape is like

"The airdrop effect fails, what should the protocol do? 》

Recently, Delphi Digital wrote a report titled " Do airdrops hurt more than help? ". The report studies the entire status quo of airdrops, from the initial Uniswap to the recent large-scale agreements that have caused countless controversies due to the points system. Airdrops are becoming more and more bubble-like, and the inability of agreements to retain customers has become the most significant trend. Crypto researcher Stacy Muur summarized the contents of the report. He believes that airdrops can attract new users, some of whom may stay. However, this is similar to the giveaways on X: some users will visit, some users may become active readers, but most will disappear. As a protocol, it should ensure that users are retained to build long-term successful products.

《Inventory of 6 projects worth a casual low-intensity push | E02》

The boring market is a good time to concentrate on airdrops. This article introduces Sonic, OdinSwap, ChronosWorld, Nubit, Ora, Stride, these 6 low-intensity, anytime airdrop projects and participation tutorials for readers' reference and learning.

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