What factors drove the surge in NOT?

Original author: Defi_Mochi, Crypto Stream, crypto KOL

Original translation: TechFlow

 

Public data shows that the $NOT token has risen by nearly 40% in the past 24 hours and more than 280% in 7 days.

 

What factors have driven the surge in NOT? Different analysts have also given answers from the perspectives of token structure, recent catalysts, and secondary market trends.

 

We have sorted out and compiled the reasons, the full text is as follows.

 

@CryptoStreamHub: Staking, destruction and secondary trading

 

 

Why did it surge?

 

· Staking feature

· Projects destroy $NOT tokens

· Market manipulators push up the price

 

One reason is the reduction in circulating supply through the staking feature, as well as token destruction by ecosystem projects.

 

About 18 million $TON (about $350,000) were destroyed and permanently removed from circulation (reducing selling pressure). While this doesn’t seem like much, investors may expect more destruction in the future, after all, this is cryptocurrency and valuations don’t have to be reasonable.

 

Another argument heard is that market manipulators are pushing up the token price. $NOT is backed by Binance, and people often discuss how tokens backed by Binance magically go up.

 

For example, I recently read a blog post titled: “The Binance Cartel is Real.”

 

(Translator's note: A cartel is a monopoly structure, and the author is actually alluding to potential manipulation of the market and the price of a particular token)

 

So, will the rally continue?

 

It's hard to estimate. Personally, I would stay away from buying this token right now because the risk is too high. There are other tokens on the market with a better risk-reward ratio.

 

On the other hand, more liquidity may flow from $TON to $NOT because it is now considered a blue-chip ecosystem token.

 

Reasons to be bullish on $NOT

 

As you all know, $NOT was the token for a popular social clicker game on Telegram, which later added leaderboards and squads features. At its peak, it reached an astonishing 35 million users!

 

Today, $NOT is the main token for the Notcoin ecosystem, where you can explore and play mini-games on Telegram.

 

In addition:

 

· Listed and supported on Binance

· 100% of tokens in circulation

· Leveraged bet on the $TON ecosystem

 

The case for being bearish on $NOT

 

After a big rally, there is usually a high probability that a token will correct, especially in a hype run like we have seen with $NOT.

 

The likelihood of a correction increases as more investors buy the token due to fear of missing out (FOMO). These investors usually don’t have much confidence and can be easily scared off by overall market corrections.

 

Summary

 

· The gains are large and may adjust

· Ecosystem projects may divert liquidity

 

NOT is the first “quality” token in the TON ecosystem. By quality, I mean that it has the attention of investors and is supported by the $TON ecosystem and Binance.

 

It is certain that other tokens will follow.

 

A better strategy may be to research and look for other tokens in the $TON ecosystem that may follow the success of $NOT.

 

If you decide to buy tokens at current prices, it is recommended to pay special attention to your risk management framework.

 

Risk Management Tips

 

· Consider Dollar Cost Averaging

· Never invest more than you can afford to lose

· Anticipate how a correction will feel

· Put additional risk management steps in place

 

@defi_mochi: Sweeping the dip, TON BETA narrative, and low liquidity

 

In the past few days, the following projects have achieved returns close to 2-4x:

 

· $NOT -> +311%

· $BB -> +137.9%

· $TNSR -> +74.4%

 

Here is a way to execute this strategy to achieve large liquidity returns.

 

1. Accumulation Period

 

During periods of high volatility, the market moves wildly, which can cause many tokens to drop 60-70% in price.

 

While other traders are complaining about losses, these volatile conditions are actually the best time to observe market strength and accumulate.

 

Below is an example of $NOT accumulating during $BTC’s recent drop to $66k (May 23-24).

 

 

One way to confirm this is to watch for changes in $NOT/$BTC, when $NOT is no longer highly correlated with $BTC’s downtrend, this indicates that accumulation is occurring.

 

 

 

 

2. Catalyst/Speculation

 

Over the past few weeks, speculation regarding a potential $TON listing has been very active, further driving up the price of $NOT as it is the only spot "beta" token associated with $TON.

 

3. Low Market Cap/No Unlock Plans in the Near Future

 

While I have spoken a lot recently about tokens with low market caps and high fully diluted valuations (FDVs), it is generally known that most market makers have an incentive to create a "soft floor" (maintain a certain price) for tokens and tend to push prices up when there is low circulation, thereby artificially propping up the project's book value valuation.

 

For this strategy, you are looking for tokens with a market cap of less than $50 billion.

 

Example:

 

1.$NOT 480m

2.$TNSR 99m

3.$BB 128m

 

Make sure there are no unlocking plans for the tokens in the near future, which may drive down the token price. Please be cautious as this is not the safest/risk-free strategy.

 

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