Why is XRP price up today?

XRP ( XRP ) price is up today following news that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has asked a federal judge to withdraw the case against Ripple's co-founder Christian Larsen and chief executive officer Brad Garlinghouse.

The cryptocurrency climbed nearly 9% after the news, hitting $0.53, its highest level in two weeks.

XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Back-to-back Ripple wins boost XRP demand

The SEC had accused Larsen and Garlinghouse of selling $1 billion worth of unregistered securities in the form of XRP tokens. However, in July, U.S. district judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP is not security when sold to the public on crypto exchanges.

Earlier in October, Torres had denied the SEC's bid to appeal her judgment.

XRP not a security
Ripples Brad and Chris case dismissed
Tesla still own #bitcoin #bitcoin etf possibly soon #bitcoin halving approx April 2024

I’m gonna stay for the next bull market..

— Kieran Kelly (@kieranmlkelly) October 19, 2023

Interestingly, Ripple's court wins have preceded strong XRP accumulation behavior among its richest investors, aka whales.

For instance, the supply held by entities with a 10 million-100 million XRP balance (the black wave) has increased by more than 1% since July. Moreover, the jump coincides with a drop in the XRP supply held by the 1 million-10 million token balance cohort (the brown wave).

XRP supply distribution among whales holding 1 million-100 million tokens. Source: Santiment

That shows the 10 million-100 million XRP balance cohort has been absorbing the outflow from the 1 million-10 million XRP balance cohort, indicating accumulation.

Similarly, the 1 billion-infinity XRP balance cohort (the yellow wave) has absorbed the drop in the supply held by the 100 million-1 billion XRP balance cohort (the red wave).

XRP supply distribution among whales holding more than 100 million tokens. Source: Santiment

XRP's gains part of a technical rebound

XRP's gains in the last 24 hours come as a part of a technical rebound.

Notably, the cryptocurrency has entered a bounce mode after testing its multi-month ascending trendline support on the weekly chart. As of October 2023, the support was around $0.49, which has historically seen heightened trading activities, per XRP's Volume Profile indicator. 

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

XRP open interest jumps 15%

XRP's climb did not accompany stark changes in its derivative market.

For instance, the cryptocurrency's open interest (OI) — representing the aggregate notional of contracts still in play — jumped over 15% versus the previous to $554.14 million. That is still lower than the $1.19 billion OI that tailed the court decision in July.

XRP Futures OI (USD). Source: CoinGlass

Meanwhile, XRP's OI-weighted funding rate has remained below 0.01% every eight hours. That equals 0.2% per week, indicating long positions have been covering the leverage cost. However, note that funding rates below 1% per week are not considered expensive. 

XRP futures open-interest weighted funding rate, 8-hour. Source: Coinglass

Considering the lack of demand for leverage through futures contracts, it’s reasonable to doubt whether Ripple's latest court win flow has — so far — convinced investors about an extended XRP bull run.

XRP price technical analysis hints at  70% rally 

From a technical standpoint, XRP's bounce from its prevailing ascending trendline support put it on the road to $0.56. The cryptocurrency has failed to break above the $0.56 resistance level since August 2023. 

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

As a result, XRP's price could stay trapped between $0.56 and its ascending trendline support in October 2023. However, in the event of a breakout above $0.056, XRP may head toward $0.87, up 70% from the current price levels, by the end of 2023 or early 2024.

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Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline support risks triggering a bear flag breakdown scenario, as illustrated below.

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

The bear flag breakdown target comes to be around $0.25, almost 50% lower than the current price levels. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.