Bitcoin Defies History: BTC Prepares to Enter a Bullish Month! Will History Repeat Itself?

Bitcoin (BTC) has been unable to escape the downtrend it has been in for a long time since reaching its new ATH level in March.

BTC fell below $50,000 in the early August crash, but has been holding firm above $60,000 since the Fed made its first rate cut in September.

At this point, Bitcoin is expected to record a gain of at least 9% this September. Having only recorded positive growth in Septembers twice since 2013, this month’s gains would defy the negative trend and leave behind the negative trend that has seen Bitcoin close with declines eight times since 2013.

As September is about to end and there is very little time left until October, generally known as the “Uptober” month for BTC, let’s take a look at the answers to the questions “Does Bitcoin like October? How did it perform in previous Octobers?”

How Did Bitcoin Perform in Previous October Months?

When we look at Bitcoin's performance over the years and months, we notice that declines are concentrated in certain months and increases are concentrated in certain months.

When we look at the Bitcoin monthly return table above, we see that March, August and September are generally the months of decline, while February, July, October and November are the months of rise.

At this point, when historical data is examined, unlike September, Bitcoin closed October with a loss in only two of the months since 2013, while it closed October with an increase in nine of the years, achieving gains of up to 60%.

This situation also increased investors' Bitcoin expectations for October.

Although Bitcoin started the new week with a decline, the upward trend experienced in October is expected to continue.

Speaking to Coindesk, SOFA’s Augustine Fan said they expect the rise to continue and that the macroeconomic environment will continue to be supportive for crypto, saying:

“We think the friendly macro backdrop will continue to be a strong tailwind for crypto prices in Q4, with cryptocurrencies’ correlations to macro assets remaining high, especially against the SPX.

“We also remain optimistic about near-term price appreciation as Kamala Harris and her campaign talk about cryptocurrencies and investors shift to buy-low mode.”

*This is not investment advice.