Industry event
Countdown to the 4th Bitcoin halving in 2024
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Third halving:2020/05/12Block height:630000
Fourth halving:Around 2024/04/20Next halving block height:840000
Fourth halving:Around2024/04/20Next halving block height:840000
Current block height:840000What is Bitcoin halving?
With every 210,000 Bitcoin blocks mined, the block reward is cut in half. The occurs approximately every four years, with the fourth halving estimated to unfold around April 23, 2024 at a block height of 840,000.
Each halving event reduces the rewards for block miners. Initially the block reward was 50 BTC, but has been reduced to the current level of 6.25 BTC. The halving in 2024 will further demote it to 3.125 BTC.
Bitcoin halving has a huge impact on the price of Bitcoin as it is a mechanism to periodically reduce the number of new coins issued with each new block and slow down the fresh supply of Bitcoins. Every Bitcoin halving event has historically been tied closely to the crypto bull market.
Bitcoin halving events and market trends
To date, Bitcoin's block reward has been halved three times, leading to three Bitcoin halving cycles in the industry.
First Bitcoin halving cycle:November 28, 2012 – July 10, 2016: During this cycle, there were two Bitcoin rallies in April and November 2013, where Bitcoin surged 2300% from US$12 to US$288 and 1782% from US$66 to US$1242, respectively.
Second Bitcoin halving cycle:July 10, 2016 – May 12, 2020: During this cycle, there was one post-halving rally in December 2017 where Bitcoin skyrocketed 4158% from US$648 to US$19,800.
Third Bitcoin halving cycle:May 12, 2020 till now: There has been two rallies since the last halving. Bitcoin spiked 693% from US$8181 to US$64,895 in April, 2021 and rose 135% from US$29,296 to US$69,000 later that year in November.
The current market price of Bitget is $96894.9, -0.48% in the past 24 hours and -4.77% in the past seven days. For more details, head toBitcoin price data
Block rewards and Bitcoin fresh supply after each halving
The halving mechanism was coined by Satoshi Nakamoto in the Bitcoin whitepaper “A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System”.
It is stipulated that Bitcoin halves as every 210,000 blocks are mined, until the whole supply of 21 million Bitcoins are mined.
Bitcoin halved at the block heights of 210,000, 420,000, and 630,000. The current block height is 818,670 and the fourth halving is expected to take place when the height reaches 840,000, reducing the bock reward from the current level of 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Bitcoin mining startedFirst halvingSecond halvingThird halvingFourth halving
Start date2009/1/32012/11/282016/7/102020/5/122024/4/?
Interval (days)142613201403
Post-halving block reward50 BTC25 BTC12.5 BTC6.25 BTC3.125 BTC
Halving block height210,000420,000630,000840,000
Bitcoin circulation at halving10,500,00015,750,00018,375,00019,687,500
Percentage of Bitcoin mined at halving50.00%75.00%87.50%93.80%
Percentage of Bitcoin unmined at halving50.00%25.00%12.50%6.30%
Bitcoin annual inflation rate12.50%8.30%4.17%1.79%0.83%
Price impact of Bitcoin halvings
Every Bitcoin halving event has historically been tied closely to the crypto bull market. We witnessed Bitcoin soar to a new all-time high within 6–18 months after a halving event. Inevitably, the industry always keeps a close eye on the impact of halving.
First halvingSecond halvingThird halvingFourth halving
Bitcoin halving date2012/11/282016/7/102020/5/112024/4/?
Bitcoin price at halving$12$648$8,181?
Post-halving high$1,242$19,800$69,000?
Post-halving gain10250.00%2956.00%743.00%?
Lowest during halving$12$465$8,181?
Biggest gain post-halving10250.00%4158.00%743.00%?
Date of post-halving high2013/11/302017/12/172021/11/10?
Days from halving to post-halving high368527549?
Will the next Bitcoin halving lead to a new bullish run?
Halving has a huge impactLess so
YesNo
Supporting
1
All three halving events in the history of Bitcoin were followed by a price surge, which adds to the evidence that the halving will indeed have a positive impact on the price of Bitcoin.
2
In terms of demand, the BRC-20 boom seems to have brought the Bitcoin ecosystem to a new level of popularity.Bitcoin, once viewed as "digital gold," has served as a store of value. Now, with a richer ecosystem, the demand for Bitcoin is expected to increase further.Furthermore, the surge in institutional investments has spurred a growing number of transaction requests, consequently driving an upswing in the demand for Bitcoin.
3
In terms of supply, Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million by design. The halving takes place around every four years to curb inflation and control Bitcoin supply.With such low supply elasticity, an increase in demand coupled with a decrease in supply will likely lead to a price rise.
Disagreeing
1
Bitcoin halving is not a direct cause of bull markets. The first bull market was driven by a strong demand for anonymous payments. The second one derived from the ICO boom as funds poured in. The third one was rooted in the development of blockchain industry applications during the DeFi Summer. The fourth is more likely to come from the impetus of the explosive development of blockchain industry applications.
2
Price fluctuation is determined by supply and demand in the long run. The reason behind a Bitcoin price increase is either the growth of demand or the shortage of supply. The percentage of unmined Bitcoins is quite small, and halving could only have limited impact on the supply. Therefore, halving is not a major factor for driving up the price of Bitcoin.
3
If we take a closer look at Bitcoin's past bull and bear markets, it can be observed that macro liquidity, including the monetary policies and liquidity conditions of global central banks, plays a more significant role in influencing the Bitcoin market.Easing monetary policy and abundant liquidity are more likely to drive the price of Bitcoin higher, while tighter monetary policy and limited liquidity could put downward pressure on the price.
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