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Bitcoin trading activity falls – Is a big price shift coming? In recent weeks, Bitcoin’s [BTC] 90-Day active supply has been on a noticeable decline, raising questions about the current state of market demand and investor sentiment. This has long been used to assess both the level of new market interest and the overall mood of traders. As the metric continues to fall, it’s crucial to understand what this shift could mean for Bitcoin’s price movement and what trends investors should watch for in the coming months. Active supply, market demand, and sentiment The 90-Day Active Supply helps to read into both market demand and sentiment by tracking the Bitcoin that has been transacted at least once within a 90-day period. A high active supply typically signals increased market participation, often reflecting rising demand from new or short-term traders. Conversely, a decline in active supply may indicate reduced interest or a shift in sentiment, as long-term holders are less likely to sell during periods of lower market activity. Historically, significant shifts in active supply have correlated with changes in market mood, often signaling potential price fluctuations and trends. Factors behind the shift in market behavior The recent decline in Bitcoin’s 90-Day Active Supply pointed to a reduction in short-term trading activity, signaling less interest from new market participants. If this trend continues, it suggests that Bitcoin’s price may either consolidate sideways for an extended period or experience a slight dip. Several factors contribute to this shift. After Bitcoin’s surge past the $100,000 mark following President Donald Trump’s election, the market has faced heightened volatility, driven by policy uncertainties and inflation concerns. This has led to more cautious trading behavior. Additionally, the SEC’s decision to drop its case against Coinbase has created a more favorable regulatory environment, encouraging long-term holding over active trading. As institutional interest grows, market participants seem to be adopting a wait-and-see approach, which could further impact the active supply metric moving forward. Historical trends and patterns in Bitcoin’s active supply A review of historical Bitcoin cycles reveals that the active supply tends to rise during bull market peaks and contract in early-stage rallies or post-halving consolidation periods. The chart indicates previous spikes in active supply during Bitcoin’s major price surges in 2013, 2017, and 2021, followed by steep declines during corrective phases. Notably, the recent downturn in active supply mirrors trends observed before major breakouts, suggesting that current market participants are holding onto their assets in anticipation of a higher price leg. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could be in a consolidation phase before another upward move. Has this impacted BTC’s price? Bitcoin was trading at $96,214 at press time, showing a 0.27% decline in the last 24 hours. The RSI at 45.03 indicated that BTC is in neutral territory, neither oversold nor overbought. The OBV was trending downward, indicating weakening buying pressure, which aligned with the decline in 90-Day active supply. BTC has been consolidating below the $100,000 mark after failing to establish a clear breakout. The diminishing short-term trading activity indicates that investors are cautious, likely waiting for stronger catalysts. If BTC fails to reclaim momentum, a pullback toward $90,000 remains possible. However, if demand picks up, BTC could attempt another push toward psychological resistance at $100,000 $BTC

1. Early-Stage Volatility Is Normal Market Fluctuations: The open mainnet launch triggered an initial surge followed by a significant price drop. Such volatility is common when a project transitions from a closed to an open network as market forces start to play a larger role . Patience May Pay Off: Early-stage price swings can be unsettling, but many cryptocurrencies experience similar patterns in their infancy. Holding through the volatility might allow you to benefit from a more mature market as the network stabilizes. 2. Future Adoption and Network Growth Expanding Utility: With the open mainnet, $PI Coin is now accessible on multiple exchanges. As the network evolves, additional use cases and integration into various applications could increase demand and utility. Community and Ecosystem: The Pi Network has built a strong community over several years. Continued growth in user engagement and developer activity can signal long-term potential for the token’s value . 3. Exchange Listings and Increased Liquidity Broader Exchange Coverage: While some exchanges have already listed Pi Coin, major platforms like Binance are still considering a listing based on community input. A future listing on a high-profile exchange could significantly boost liquidity and credibility. Market Maturation: As more platforms list the token, you might see reduced price manipulation and increased stability, which could make holding a more attractive long-term strategy . 4. Potential for Long-Term Value Appreciation Early Adoption Rewards: Cryptocurrencies that start with high community engagement and gradually build out a robust infrastructure often offer significant long-term returns. If you believe in the underlying project, holding could let you participate in future gains. Technology and Vision: Pi Network’s evolution—from its enclosed mainnet phase to the current open mainnet—signals progress. Staying informed about upcoming updates and the project’s roadmap may reinforce the decision to hold . 5. Staying Informed and Making Decisions Based on Research Monitor Official Updates: Given the dynamic nature of cryptocurrency markets, keep an eye on official communications from Pi Network. This helps ensure your decisions are based on the latest information. Evaluate Risks and Rewards: As with any investment, weigh the potential rewards against the inherent risks. If you’re confident in the project’s long-term strategy and community backing, holding might be a prudent decision. Choosing whether to hold or sell tokens during periods of volatility is a personal decision that should align with your risk tolerance and investment goals. The current fluctuations following the open mainnet launch might be a natural part of the project’s evolution rather than an indicator of long-term failure. Taking a long-term view and staying updated on further developments could be key to making a well-informed decision.

$PI Network, launched in 2019 by Stanford graduates Nicolas Kokkalis and Chengdiao Fan, has positioned itself as a mobile-friendly cryptocurrency aiming to democratize crypto mining. With its mainnet launch on February 20, 2025, and a massive user base of over 60 million "Pioneers," Pi has generated significant buzz. However, its path forward remains uncertain, shaped by a mix of optimism, skepticism, and volatility. Recent Developments and Market Performance As of February 2025, Pi Network’s open mainnet launch has been a major milestone, allowing Pi coins to become tradable on exchanges like Bitget, with trading pairs going live shortly after the launch. However, the current price and market cap are still stabilizing. Based on web sources, Pi IOUs (unofficial tokens traded speculatively) were valued around $62.90 in mid-February, but post-launch prices have shown volatility. Some sources estimate Pi’s price could range from $0.668 to as high as $2.50 in 2025, depending on market adoption and sell-off pressure. Posts on X indicate excitement about Pi’s potential for speed, efficiency, and accessibility, but there are also warnings about fake listings on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), suggesting caution among users. Pi’s market cap could theoretically reach trillions if all 100 billion tokens enter circulation, but this is speculative and hinges on real-world adoption and utility. Reports suggest a potential sell-off risk as early miners cash out, which could drive prices down to as low as $11.46–$0.50 in 2025, according to bearish forecasts. Conversely, bullish scenarios predict prices could climb to $94.08 or higher by year-end, driven by a large user base and potential altcoin market momentum. Sentiment on X and Beyond Posts on X reflect a polarized sentiment. Enthusiasts praise Pi’s innovative mobile mining model, global reach, and potential to revolutionize tokenization and cross-border transactions. One analyst on X defended Pi’s credibility, highlighting its accessibility and 60+ million users as unmatched advantages. However, skepticism persists, with some users labeling Pi a scam due to its referral system, delayed launches, and lack of transparency. Official Pi Network accounts have warned about fraudulent DEX listings, underscoring security concerns and urging users to avoid scams. On websites like CCN, CoinGecko, and CoinCodex, opinions vary. Some analysts are cautiously optimistic, citing Pi’s user base and mainnet launch as growth drivers, while others warn of pyramid scheme risks, regulatory hurdles, and limited utility. Reddit discussions reveal a mix of hope (e.g., predictions of Pi reaching $314 per coin) and realism, with many users acknowledging the speculative nature of its value until it proves real-world use cases. Factors Influencing Future Market Performance Several factors will shape Pi’s trajectory in 2025 and beyond: - **Mainnet Launch and Adoption**: The February 20, 2025, launch enables trading and dApp development, but success depends on whether Pioneers and developers build a functional ecosystem. KYC verification (required by February 28, 2025) and migration to the mainnet are critical, but delays and technical issues could erode trust. - **Sell-Off Pressure**: With 10–20 billion Pi coins potentially unlocked at launch, a mass sell-off by early miners could crash prices, as warned by multiple sources. Gradual token unlocks and strong demand are needed to offset this risk. - **Regulatory Environment**: Pi’s referral-based growth and data collection practices have drawn scrutiny, with some labeling it a potential pyramid scheme. Regulatory crackdowns could limit its growth, especially in major markets. - **Utility and Ecosystem**: Pi’s value depends on real-world use cases—e.g., payments, dApps, or partnerships. Its ecosystem, including Pi Browser and Pi Wallet, needs to expand to justify its market cap. - **Market Trends**: Pi’s performance will likely mirror broader crypto market trends, such as Bitcoin’s bull run in 2025, but it could underperform if sentiment turns bearish or competitors like Ethereum and Litecoin dominate. My View on Pi’s Future Market Performance Pi Network has the potential to become a significant player if it can overcome its challenges. Its massive user base and mobile mining model set it apart, and the mainnet launch in February 2025 is a pivotal moment. However, its success isn’t guaranteed. Bearish sentiment points to risks like sell-off pressure, regulatory uncertainty, and lack of proven utility, which could keep prices low or even render Pi “worthless” in some scenarios. Bullish scenarios suggest Pi could reach $2.50–$94.08 in 2025, or even higher long-term ($275.69 by 2030), if adoption surges and the ecosystem thrives. As of February 22, 2025, Pi remains a high-risk, high-reward investment. It’s not yet clear if it will become the “next wealth myth” or fade into obscurity. Investors should approach with caution, conduct thorough research, and monitor developments closely, especially post-launch volatility and regulatory responses. While enthusiasm on X and some websites is palpable, the broader crypto community remains divided, and Pi’s true value will only emerge with time and real-world adoption.

$PI is making significant strides as it moves deeper into its Open Mainnet phase, sparking discussions about its future value and utility. With a massive user base and a unique mobile mining model, the next challenge lies in securing exchange listings and real-world adoption. Analysts offer mixed price projections for $PI. Some predict a potential range of $5 to $12 by 2025, depending on liquidity and demand. By 2030, optimistic estimates suggest values could exceed $100 if the ecosystem matures and gains widespread acceptance. However, regulatory challenges and the pace of integration will play critical roles in shaping its trajectory. For $PI to succeed, it must prove its long-term sustainability, attract key partnerships, and establish practical use cases. If these elements align, it could become a major player in the crypto space.

National Bitcoin Reserve Initiative: MP Satoshi Hamada Urges Japan To Take Action In a notable development for the cryptocurrency landscape, Japanese Member of Parliament Satoshi Hamada has urged his government to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, aligning Japan with a growing global trend where nations like the United States are exploring similar initiatives.  Bitcoin Adoption Surges Among Nations And Major Corporations Hamada’s proposal reflects a broader interest in diversifying national reserves with cryptocurrencies, particularly following recent discussions in the Japanese parliament about reserve movements in the US and other countries. This surge in interest comes on the heels of Texas’s significant legislative efforts. The Texas House of Representatives has introduced a bill aimed at creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve, spearheaded by Republican state Representative Giovanni .