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$BTC is above $100k, but there's a divergence playing out on the chart right now and it's the one that tells you everything about where sentiment is heading. Whale inflows have dropped from $5B to $3B since mid-April. Meanwhile, retail is stepping in hard: $12B to $15B in the same time span. That divergence isn’t noise. It’s a message. Smart money is de-risking, while retail is ramping up exposure. So...who’s right? ➜ Understanding The Whale Signal The drop in whale inflows points to increased hesitation among large holders. And it’s not just anecdotal: • Bitcoin’s RSI is nearing overbought levels at 69.81 • Bollinger Bands show price pushing the upper range • On Binance, 57% of traders are shorting $BTC That’s not bullish positioning. That’s hedging. Whales don’t usually panic. They front-run the panic. ◢ So, What happens to Retail? While whales slow down, retail appetite is growing. $3B more flowed in from smaller wallets—showing renewed optimism from the crowd. But here’s the nuance: retail participation is still below previous ATHs. This isn’t euphoric FOMO (maybe yet) It’s cautious confidence. And historically, early retail momentum like this has preceded some of $BTC’s biggest moves. ➜ Stock-to-Flow Is Surging Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio is up 166.67%, now sitting at 2.118 million. S2F rising = supply tightening. Combine that with rising demand from ETFs and institutional allocation, and you have a long-term squeeze forming beneath the surface. In other words: the bull case is still intact even if the surface-level sentiment feels shaky. ◢ All in all, Institutions Aren’t Out; They’re Playing Chess Even though short-term netflows showed -1586% last week, the 30-day trend is still up 101%. — Translation: smart money is still betting on $BTC, just more selectively. They’re accumulating on dips, not chasing pumps. That’s bullish quiet, calculated accumulation is how big moves start. ➜ What Happens Next? Bitcoin is in a weird spot right now. • RSI near overbought • Whale caution signals possible short-term resistance • Retail strength shows underlying optimism • Institutions quietly accumulating • S2F rising = growing scarcity ✍️ My take? If $BTC breaks past $108K with conviction, a short squeeze could send us toward $115K+ quickly. But if resistance holds and retail cools off? We likely consolidate between $98K–$106K until the next catalyst hits.

Quantum Computing vs. Bitcoin: Is Encryption Really at Risk? Quantum computing threatens Bitcoin long-term, but current risks are low. Solutions like PQC and hard forks are being explored.

The encrypted messaging platform has just dealt a fatal blow to the largest illicit market ever created on its platform. Haowang Guarantee, a hub of Chinese organized crime that facilitated 27 billion dollars in dubious transactions, has shut down. A spectacular victory that ironically comes as Telegram fiercely defends the privacy of its users against French authorities. On May 13, 2025, Telegram orchestrated a massive cleanup operation by deleting thousands of accounts, groups, and channels associated with Haowang Guarantee (formerly Huione Guarantee). This darknet marketplace, described by Tom Robinson from Elliptic as “the largest darknet market ever to exist“, served as a hub for various criminal activities: money laundering, crypto scams, identity theft, and even providing equipment for fraudulent call centers. The scale of the phenomenon is staggering. According to Elliptic , the Huione group as a whole may have facilitated nearly 98 billion dollars in crypto transactions. These figures reveal the existence of a real Chinese “underground banking system,” where stablecoins like Tether serve as currency to circumvent traditional regulations. This intervention comes after increasing international pressure, including the designation of the platform as a money laundering operation by the U.S. FinCEN. Remi Vaughn, Telegram spokesperson, confirms: We have removed all reported communities. Our terms of use prohibit criminal activities and we always remove them as soon as we discover them. Ironically, this strong action against crime comes as Telegram is engaged in a fierce battle to preserve encryption of its communications. In April and May 2025, the app sharply criticized French attempts to impose “backdoors” in encrypted messaging, even threatening to leave France rather than compromise users’ security. This huge divide illustrates Telegram’s fundamental dilemma: how to reconcile the protection of privacy with the need to fight criminal activities? The rapid emergence of Xinbi Guarantee, a new market already handling 8.4 billion dollars, suggests criminals adapt faster than regulators. The closure of Haowang Guarantee certainly marks a symbolic victory against cybercrime. But it also raises fundamental questions about balancing digital freedom and state control. A debate far from settled, while Telegram continues to navigate between regulatory pressures and its promise of absolute confidentiality.

Galaxy Digital in talks with U.S. SEC to tokenize company shares Galaxy Digital is discussing plans with the U.S. SEC to tokenize its stock and other assets using its blockchain platform, according to @Bloomberg. The move aims to enable decentralized finance use cases like 24/7

I plan to return to deep research next week. It turns out that I have written 50+ researches in 6 months, but few people know about it. I thought about collecting them all in one place. Would you like to see it?