アルトコインシーズン指数

Numerous cohorts of Ethereum addresses added over 330,000 ETH in the last two weeks. Is this a sign that a $5,000 ETH price is in the making? Ethereum’s native token, Ether , currently ranks as the only cryptocurrency in the top 10 by market capitalization to show a negative return over the past 30 days. With crowd sentiment dropping to a new low each week, the altcoin is desperate for a bullish revival, and onchain data suggests it might come sooner than later. MAXPAIN, a crypto markets analyst, highlighted that Ether addresses holding between 1,000 to 10,000 ETH have accumulated 330,000 ETH since Jan. 7, valued at over $1.08 billion. Previously, ETH accumulation of such size occurred in April, when the same cohort of addresses amassed over 620,000 ETH. The altcoin witnessed a 66% upswing thereafter. The crypto trader also noted the consequent increase in daily active addresses, with network growth rising to 180,000, which may imply a fresh capital inflow. With most of the market moving on from Ether’s lackluster performance over the past month, multiple traders were eyeing the current market setup as a potential bullish opportunity. Jelle, a long-term crypto investor, identified the formation of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern within another bullish setup of ascending triangles on the weekly chart. The probability of a bullish breakout improves significantly with the price converging within a couple of bullish confluences, as the analyst hinted at the possibility of price discovery for the altcoin. In fact, Alec, a derivative trader, said Ether was developing a tightening on both the 30-minute low time frame (LTF) and 1-day high time frame (HTF). With liquidity present on both sides of the spectrum, the trader said, “A larger move is on the horizon for ETH. Take the liquidity and run the opposite way? But which way??" Lastly, Cold Blooded Shiller, a markets analyst, opined on the dismissive nature of the industry on Ethereum right now and said, “$5k $ETH by March, and this will be the saltiest space on Earth.” While $5,000 is an attainable target for Ether, its immediate hurdle remains at the $4,100 level. Since 2024, Ethereum has managed to break above a descending trendline on two separate occasions, but the overhead resistance at $4,100 has not been breached. Thus, for Ethereum to target $5,000, the immediate condition is to flip $4,100 into support on the daily and weekly chart. Once the price action has been accepted above the aforementioned level, Ether could rally to $5,000, but until then, the altcoin still needs to rally against bearish odds. Source: CoinTelegraph Futures Market Updates Funding rates and Long/Short ratio means markets might be anticipating a significant breakout or breakdown, with a bias toward downside risk. Bitcoin Futures Updates Total BTC Open Interest: $67.32B (-2.23%) BTC Volume (24H): $97.91B (-7.36%) BTC Liquidations (24H): $54.15M (Long)/$10.00M (Short) Long/Short Ratio: 48.73%/51.27% Funding Rate: 0.0100% Ether Futures Updates Total ETH Open Interest: $30.62B (-1.86%) ETH Volume (24H): $32.59B (-7.28%) ETH Liquidations (24H): $23.30M (Long)/$3.65M (Short) Long/Short Ratio: 47.73%/52.27% Funding Rate: 0.0091% Top 3 OI Surges FLOCK: $8.39M (+221.47%) MVL: $14.16M (+210.70%) VTHO: $39.52M (+107.79%)

Bitcoin rebounded to $96,500, adding 3% in 24 hours, following softer-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data. This comes after Monday’s dip below $90,000, which was quickly bought up amid reports of Donald Trump’s pro-crypto executive orders planned for his January 20 inauguration. Ripple’s XRP and Dogecoin (DOGE) outperformed, leading the altcoin market with 6%-7% gains as the CoinDesk 20 Index rose 5%. The crypto market is watching two key events: Wednesday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, expected to bring volatility, and Trump’s inauguration, anticipated to signal crypto-friendly policies. K33 Research previously suggested selling Bitcoin at the inauguration, anticipating it as a "sell-the-news" event. However, the early-year market sell-off has led the firm to revise this outlook, stating that selling would now depend on price momentum over the next week. Despite recent market turbulence, K33 remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, citing Trump’s potential positive impact on crypto. Meanwhile, traditional markets like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 remained flat, as traders reassessed expectations for lower U.S. interest rates amid strong economic data. Bitcoin continues consolidating above $90,000 as global markets navigate rising bond yields and a volatile dollar. Source: CoinDesk Futures Market Updates In the past 24 hours, BTC futures showed a slight increase in open interest (+1.30%) while ETH futures saw a decrease (-1.30%), indicating stronger market engagement for BTC. Both markets experienced significant drops in trading volume, with BTC volume down 27.77% and ETH volume plunging 50.56%, highlighting a sharper decline in ETH activity. Liquidations were higher for BTC. The long/short ratio for BTC leaned slightly bullish (51.04% long), whereas ETH was nearly neutral (49.97% long), reflecting marginally different sentiment. Funding rates remained low for both, with BTC at 0.0072% and ETH at 0.0067%. BTC Futures Updates Total BTC Open Interest: $61.42B (+1.30%) BTC Volume (24H): $105.42B (-27.77%) BTC Liquidations (24H): $18.52M (Long)/$39.35M (Short) Long/Short Ratio: 51.04%/48.96% Funding Rate: 0.0072% Ether Futures Updates Total ETH Open Interest: $28.20B (-1.30%) ETH Volume (24H): $34.13B (-50.56%) ETH Liquidations (24H): $11.93M (Long)/$24.02M (Short) Long/Short Ratio: 49.97%/50.03% Funding Rate: 0.0067% Top 3 OI Surges 1000TOSHI: $3.81M (+677.98%) AIPUMP: $477.73K (+204.06%) PROS: $439.96K (+170.34%)

The Bitget Altcoin Season Index is a real-time index used to determine if the crypto market is currently in an altcoin-dominated season. This index tracks the performance of the top 100 altcoins over the past 90 days relative to Bitcoin and provides detailed charts and indicators to monitor market trends and altcoin market cap share. The tool aims to help users assess whether the market focus has shifted toward altcoins or remains centered on Bitcoin by analyzing historical price data and market trends. About Bitget Altcoin Season Index In recent years, the dynamics of altseason have evolved, with factors such as stablecoin liquidity and market innovations reshaping its patterns. In December 2024, the crypto market became excited by the possibility of Trump returning to the presidency, potentially leading to a more crypto-friendly stance in the U.S. This major development occurred a few months after the fourth Bitcoin halving and the subsequent approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, when mainstream investors had already started viewing cryptocurrency as a viable investment asset. Global investors are now anticipating the arrival of the next altseason, a shift driven by institutional capital flowing into altcoins and new market participants exploring crypto investments. Altcoin seasons are typically accompanied by a decline in Bitcoin dominance, increased altcoin trading activity, and intensified retail speculation. As a result, understanding the altseason is crucial for maximizing opportunities and managing associated risks. The Bitget Altcoin Season Index helps by tracking Bitcoin's performance against the top 100 altcoins over a 90-day period. By comparing performance, it allows investors to determine the right time to buy altcoins while smoothing out short-term volatility and providing a longer-term market perspective. Meanwhile, investors can also use the Altseason Index to predict the start of the altseason. Monitoring the performance and market cap of individual altcoins can be challenging, but the Altseason Index consolidates the top-performing altcoins into one trend index, making it easier for investors to spot the optimal time to buy altcoins for profit. How the Altcoin Season Index works According to the index's definition, the altseason begins when 75% of the top 100 altcoins outperform Bitcoin. This typically happens during bull markets. The chart below shows the performance of altcoins from October 15, 2024, to January 13, 2025 (90 days). As shown in the chart, from October 15, 2024, to January 13, 2025, the index only briefly exceeded 75, mostly fluctuating between 25 and 75. This suggests that the market is still far from entering altseason, as 75% of the altcoins need to consistently outperform Bitcoin and remain above the 75 threshold for a period of time before altseason truly begins. How to interpret the Altcoin Season Index The Altcoin Season Index includes a rainbow linear indicator, which shows the current phase of the cryptocurrency market. The left end of the indicator is green, the right end is red, and the middle part falls within the green-orange zone. When the index value tilts to the left, it indicates Bitcoin season. When it tilts to the right, it signals altseason. The value is derived by comparing the 90-day returns of all altcoins with Bitcoin's returns. When the index value is between 25 and 70, it falls into the green-orange zone, indicating that Bitcoin and altcoins are performing similarly. As of January 13, 2025, the Altcoin Season Index stands at 41, suggesting that the cryptocurrency market is not currently in an altcoin-dominated phase. New drivers of Altseason It's important to note that the arrival of altseason can be predicted through several market changes that investors can monitor for early positioning, including: 1. Stablecoin liquidity and institutional capital are now the primary drivers of altseason. 2. Ethereum's performance is often a precursor to broader altcoin gains. 3. Monitoring Bitcoin's dominance and the altseason index provides valuable signals for traders. 4. Specific industry narratives, such as AI and GameFi, are reshaping the growth potential of altcoins. 5. Regulatory clarity remains a key factor in sustaining altcoin momentum. This evolution marks a maturing market where altcoins thrive on innovation and utility, rather than speculative hype. Conclusion This article explores the key aspects of the Bitget Altcoin Season Index, which serves as a valuable tool for investors to understand which altcoins are worth investing in. While the index should not be the sole basis for investment decisions, it provides useful insights. By learning how to interpret the altseason index data, investors can seize profit opportunities. However, due to market volatility and unpredictability during such periods, it's best to combine this with risk management strategies, such as setting stop-losses and using appropriate leverage. Investors should also prioritize risk management principles and strive to maintain a comprehensive view of market conditions. The index only tracks the performance of the top 100 altcoins and does not consider lesser-known altcoins that might also offer profitable opportunities.