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Bitcoin volatility has dropped to a new all-time low compared to Gold. VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, shared the data from Bloomberg Terminal on X, noting that BTC 30-day volatility fell to 28.70. This is the lowest volatility level for Bitcoin in more than 10 years and also meant that BTC volatility dropped below Gold’s for the first time. The same data shows that Gold currently has a volatility of 33.49 while the SPX also has 40.45 within the same period. With Bitcoin volatility dropping, the volatility ratio for Bitcoin and Gold now stands at 0.87. It is the lowest level in a decade. Sigel considered this to be a good development for the flagship asset. Volatility describes the degree of price variations for an asset over a period of time. When low, it is generally considered a positive sign of asset maturity and price stability, which will attract more institutional investors. This appears to be Sigel’s point of view. The VanEck researcher had earlier highlighted a recent research paper stating that CERN Physicists have been able to turn lead into Gold. He used this as further proof of the inherent value of Bitcoin as the scarcity is already programmed, unlike Gold, which may soon be produced in laboratories. However, not everyone agrees that low volatility is good for BTC at the current stage. As one user observed, Bitcoin is still in its early stages, and volatility expansion could attract more inflow, which could be bad for low volatility. They wrote: “Persistent low volatility regime would likely lead to many investors selling BTC (and our many complicated BTC proxies) to look for yield and opportunity elsewhere.” While the likelihood of low volatility persisting is unknown, the concerns echoed real. The decline in Bitcoin volatility is because the asset has been stuck in price ranges for extended periods over the past month despite gaining more than 22% in the last 30 days. Initially, it was in the $93,000 to $96,000 range for most part of late April and early May. However, it surged above $100,000 on May 8 and has remained stuck in that price zone, not exceeding $104,000 even as other assets saw bigger shifts. Bitcoin’s low volatility has allowed it to maintain its current $103,000 value even as altcoins saw a decline in their value over the last 24 hours. Still, its failure to break the $104,000 resistance remains a concern. However, experts have found an explanation for why Bitcoin is stuck. Onchain analyst Darkfost said that the derivatives market is to blame, pointing out that short positions against BTC have exceeded long positions since the asset climbed above $100,000. This suggests that most traders doubt that Bitcoin can hit a new all-time value quickly and are betting against it, leading to significant selling pressure. However, the low volatility and price stalling do not bother most market experts who believe Bitcoin is on track to set a new all-time high. Fidelity VP of Digital Assets Research, Chris Kuiper, recently shared a report showing that Bitcoin is still in Acceleration Phase. According to the report, the Acceleration Phase is a period of high volatility and high profits, with investors pushing the assets to a peak price before they retreat to the Reversal Phase. As of May 13, when BTC was trading at $104,119, 99% of wallets were in profits. Beyond that, Binance whale inflows to exchanges have dropped to the lowest level since November 2024, according to CryptoQuant. This is another positive indicator of future price expansion. Meanwhile, crypto analyst Ali Martinez believes that the Bitcoin market’s top for this cycle could be at $120,000 as long as the $90,000 support level is maintained. KEY Difference Wire helps crypto brands break through and dominate headlines fast

There is a lot of debate on what SPX will do next. The rally that we just had was not that difficult to anticipate, as the market will often get a big bounce after 20-21% drawdowns (especially in short periods of time). The market also will frequently bounce after sweeping lows from a year before (I showed this on youtube back in March/April). I was also clear to expect SPX weakness from Feb OPEX to early-April (as I mentioned many times), but that renewed strength should come in Q2. Well here we are - that all played out. So now what? There has been a lot of debate on this platform as to what lies ahead. Now #SPX is at a crossroads and the short-term direction becomes a little less clear. You can see two analogs below that match 2025 pretty well so far (1980 and 2001), so it's easy if you are in either camp (bear or bull) to provide the analog as evidence that backs your bias. The thesis for either path is actually somewhat believable: 1) The Bear Case The bear case is fairly straightforward: The unemployment rate has been trending up for the last couple of years. The market was looking for a reason to kick off the downturn, and uncertainty from the new administration as it relates to tariffs was the perfect event to swing momentum in the other direction. There has been a huge bounce by SPX, seemingly following announcements of trade deals, but tariffs are still in effect and even tariff pauses do not actually mean pauses (they just mean less tariffs than previously announced). Thus, this phase could simply be the "return to normal" before we have to face the music of rising unemployment and potentially rising inflation once tariffs make their way to the consumer. The reason this could be detrimental is because tariff uncertainty as it relates to inflation could cause the Fed to not cut rates as early as they should, which might increase the chances of a hard landing. Since we had negative GDP in Q1 2025, it would seem reasonable to get a rate cut under normal circumstances (especially with headline inflation at 2.3%). But the Fed is and will likely continue to not cut rates until it becomes more clear how tariffs will affect the inflation data. If the FFR is > r* (the neutral rate), then the economy will continue to slow down. If there is a spike in inflation, the Fed's hands could be tied to come to the rescue of rising unemployment. If this scenario is to play out, then one would expect SPX would make a lower high in May (June at the latest) and put in a new low by Aug/Sep. 2) The bull case The bull case is also straightforward. Markets panicked and had a tariff tantrum over higher than anticipated tariffs. But now that many have been reduced, business can continue as usual. Prices of goods and services might go up but if the consumer is not tapped out, then the economy could simply continue churning along for a while as rising costs of companies just get passed to the consumer (like they always do). A new high by SPX would be more suggestive that the market has shrugged off the tariffs and is no longer that concerned about them. After all, the market has shrugged off plenty of things over the years. This would once again speak to the resilience of the US economy. In that case, it would also make sense for the long end of the yield curve to go higher as the implication would be that the economy is still doing ok, (the long end could also go up in the bear case though too with inflation expectations going through the roof). So like I said, the market is at a crossroads. Buying stocks in early April was not the hard part. The hard part is what comes next. The path for the summer is still open for debate. I think the path could be partially decided on the next macro data points (unemployment rate and inflation next month). If tariffs start to show up in the inflation data, then it would likely put the SPX rally on pause. Or if the unemployment rate trends up this summer, it could also put the rally on pause. If both inflation and the unemployment rate remain low, then the market momentum would likely continue. The good news is that market tops usually take a long time to play out, which is why panic selling early April was never a good idea. It's one of those things where if you look at the market in a month and SPX has still not put in a new high, then it may be time to start bracing for a pullback into Q3. I'll probably reference this post in a few weeks and by that point it will probably be more obvious which path SPX is following. Even in the bear case, stocks would likely only slowly go lower after failing to put in a higher high, which would give people time to make decisions. The next period of major weakness in stocks is likely Aug/Sep. If SPX puts in a higher high soon then Aug/Sep weakness would likely be a higher low. If SPX puts in a lower higher here, then the weakness in Aug/Sep would likely be a lower low (or double bottom). I do think DXY will go to 103-104 in the short-term, but I do not anticipate a big move up by DXY until 2026.

$SPX trading like it's terrified of filling lower gaps.

$1.2 Trillion of S&P 500 $SPX notional options exposure is set to expire on Friday with a max pain price currently sitting at 5,840 🚨🚨

For only the 6th time in history, the S&P 500 soared at least 18% over just 25 trading days 🚨 What happened the 5 previous times? 250 days later, the $SPX was green 100% of the time, with an average gain of 30%, the low return was 11.4% while the best gain was 43.65% 📈📈