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Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at asset management firm Bitwise, used his March 17 memo to explain why bitcoin tends to drop in moments of financial stress—even though it’s considered a hedge. Drawing from research by his colleague Juan Leon, Hougan noted that when the S&P 500 falls by more than 2% in a single day, bitcoin tends to perform even worse, declining about 2.6% on average. “But Juan’s research showed something else: If you had stayed invested—or bought more after the pullback—you would have done very well. On average, in the year following these sharp pullbacks, bitcoin rose a shocking 190%, dramatically outperforming every other asset,” Hougan said. Describing the trend, he stated: I call this pattern ‘Dip Then Rip,’ and historically it’s one of the most consistent patterns in crypto. Hougan suggested this behavior stems from how investors determine asset values using future expectations and risk assumptions—principles borrowed from discounted cash flow analysis. While bitcoin lacks cash flows, he applied a similar model based on projected value and discount rates. He explained: At Bitwise, for instance, we think bitcoin will be worth $1 million in 2029. “So, you might ask, what do we think it’s worth today? It depends on the discount factor—that is, the risk you assign it. If you discount back at 50% a year, the net present value is $218,604. If you use a 75% discount rate, the net present value is $122,633,” the executive detailed. Hougan emphasized that geopolitical disruptions like tariffs can temporarily elevate risk perception, raising the discount rate and lowering bitcoin’s near-term valuation—even if the long-term forecast improves. To illustrate the latest drop in prices triggered by tariff fears, Hougan cited a comment from crypto services firm NYDIG: “What does bitcoin have to do with tariff wars? Nothing, other than it’s a highly liquid, globally available asset that trades 24/7. If anything, bitcoin stands to benefit from the rise in global entropy, the political and economic disorder created by the administration.” For Hougan, such market turbulence may present a strategic opening. He concluded: If you’re a long-term investor, these short-term spikes in the discount factor are a chance to get in at a discount. From where I sit, I’ve never been more bullish. 免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。

Strategy, previously named MicroStrategy , is scaling up its Bitcoin mission . Through a combination of confidence and capital, the firm has registered an offering of 8.5 million shares of its 10% Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock at $85 per share. The scheme is anticipated to generate an enormous $711.2 million, funds heading straight into Bitcoin and boosting its day-to-day finances. Strategy announces pricing of its Strife Perpetual Preferred Stock ($STRF) Offering and upsizes the deal from $500M to $722.5M $MSTR https://t.co/GJVCRwIQ0Y — Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) March 21, 2025 The offering that will be closing on Tuesday, March 25, 2025, guarantees investors a 10% annual dividend return. Strategy’s decision to raise almost $211 million more than planned reflects strong investor demand and, perhaps, a growing conviction in the long-term value of Bitcoin. Initially, the company targeted to sell $500 million with only 5 million shares of the same stock. Strategy purchased a whole batch of 130 BTC this week for $10.7 million, which means they spent $82,982 on each BTC on average. The most recent transaction raised the value of the company’s Bitcoins to 499,226, which is around 2.37% of all the Bitcoins that are currently in circulation. Founder and chairman Michael Saylor hasn’t been shy about his endgame. “Bitcoin is our strategy,” he has made clear through both word and wallet. By using this, a novel model has arisen within Strategy in which not only crypto is being held, but its use has led to the establishment of a fully functional business model. Some companies might take a small step, but Strategy goes the whole hog. After the sale of 123,000 shares of 8.00% Series A Perpetual Strike Preferred Stock, the company rose to the sum of $10.7 million. The exact amount was used to buy 130 Bitcoins. Furthermore, in a world where treasuries typically mean cash or bonds, this kind of discipline is unique. As a matter of fact, Strategy actually has not sold any A Class common stock in the recent past to imply its determination based on the progressive financial task and only through the current and future Bitcoin-centric strategy. This is not only a crypto investment , it is a financial philosophy in action. Strategy is one such example. Reports show that 170 institutions, including governments and fund managers, are now holding around 3.1 million Bitcoins in their treasuries. The message is loud—Bitcoin is no longer fringe. It is now an integral part of the financial mainstream that defends against inflation and currency instability. To expand its capital firepower, Strategy has greenlit plans to issue up to $21 billion worth of its 8.00% Series A Perpetual Strike Preferred Stock using an at-the-market offering program. This may seem excessive, but in the volatile world of crypto, liquidity is king, and boldness gets rewarded—or punished—with equal speed. On the dividend front, the company also declared a quarterly payout of $1.24 per share on its existing 8.00% Series A Perpetual Strike Preferred Stock. Starting in 2025, these payments will land every quarter, sweetening the deal for investors willing to ride out the volatility.

An analyst has explained how this Bitcoin correction phase may be different from the 2024 one, based on the data of this on-chain metric. Stablecoin Supply Is Displaying A Different Pattern In This Bitcoin Downturn In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has shared about how the latest trend in the stablecoin circulating supply has been looking. “Stablecoins” are cryptocurrencies that track the price of a fiat currency, with USD being by far the most popular choice. These tokens run on multiple networks, but in the context of the current topic, only the Ethereum-based ones are of interest. Stablecoins are, by nature, relatively ‘stable’ in value, so the investors generally buy into these coins whenever they want to avoid the volatility associated with assets like Bitcoin. Holders who invest into stables, though, usually plan to eventually go back into the volatile side of the sector. For if they didn’t, they would have exited into fiat instead. Once these traders feel the time is right, they use their stablecoins to swap into Bitcoin or whatever desired coin. This shift naturally applies a buying pressure to the price of the asset. Due to the potential of the stablecoins to act as dry powder for the volatile cryptocurrencies, these assets are often looked at as the ‘available’ buy supply of the sector. As such, an increase in its value may be considered as a bullish sign. Now, here is the chart shared by the quant, which shows the trend in the supply of the ERC-20 stablecoins over the last year and a half: As displayed in the above graph, the stablecoin supply has been on the rise during the last few months, which suggests capital has been flowing into these fiat-tied tokens. This rise in the metric has come as Bitcoin has been going through a phase of bearish momentum. In the chart, the analyst has also highlighted the trend that the indicator followed during BTC’s bearish period from last year. It would seem that the stablecoin supply was moving sideways back then. This would imply that as BTC corrected in 2024, a net amount of capital flowed out of the sector as if the capital was rotating into the stablecoins instead, their supply would have registered an increase. This time around, however, a rotation of capital has indeed been occurring, with these stablecoin buyers potentially waiting on the sidelines for a profitable entry point. Of course, this current setup isn’t the most bullish one, either; that would have been the case if both the Bitcoin market cap and the stablecoin supply rose simultaneously. Nonetheless, the fact that the stablecoins haven’t been shrinking during this market downturn could still be taken as an optimistic sign for Bitcoin. BTC Price Bitcoin has seen yet another failed recovery rally as its price has dropped back to $84,000, after having broken above $87,000 just earlier. $BTC

Why Isn't $XRP Rising After Ripple's SEC Win? The Analysts Explain The XRP price has not risen much after Ripple's SEC triumph. After the SEC dismissed its appeal against Ripple, market participants predicted a record high. Investors expected a stronger surge, but XRP only rose 13% to $2.60 before falling to $2.40. Why Is XRP Not Rising? Merlin co-founder Johnny Krypto says XRP's absence of a significant price surge is expected. Anticipatory trading generally leads to subdued reactions when formal news emerges, he says, citing crypto and mainstream market history. “When Trump won, there was no logical reason for XRP's price to jump, but the market assumed the lawsuit would be dropped,” Johnny says. We witnessed the enormous pump then because of that. He says the run-up from $0.50 to $2.50 in November was traders betting on Ripple's legal success. When the conclusion is certain, the market whimpers rather than bangs. According to him, “If the SEC had maintained the appeal, XRP's price would have likely plummeted instead of staying stable,” as the lack of a negative development has stopped XRP from dropping rather than pushing it to new highs. Retail investors may lack patience due to gradual price changes, as they expect faster returns. Currently, most retail players are experiencing "pain" due to boredom, unlike in 2017, when the market experienced rapid fluctuations. However, financial markets function differently. It cycles and waves.” Beyond legal rulings, XRP and the crypto market are vulnerable to global economic factors. President Trump's tariffs might start a US-led trade war. In particular, the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and the 10% tax on China have raised fears about stagflation—slow economic growth and rising inflation. Federal Reserve monetary policy also affects attitude. On March 19, 2025, the Fed paused its rate-cutting cycle that started in September 2024 and maintained interest rates at the 4.25%–4.5% range established in late 2024X

Santiment reported a 10-year low in exchange Ethereum supply. In March, Ethereum accumulation addresses gained 2.11 million ETH. ETH may find support at $1,800 if a significant falling trendline breaks. Friday, Ethereum (ETH) climbs beyond $1,900 as investors increased buying pressure in March. The leading altcoin may rebound if the Pectra update is a price catalyst. Ethereum buyers boost purchasing despite poor pricing. According to Santiment, exchange Ethereum supply fell to 8.71 million ETH on Friday, a 10-year low. "There is 16.4% less ETH on exchanges compared to just 7 weeks ago," Santiment said on Thursday's X. A coin's exchange supply decrease suggests investors are shifting tokens to private wallets for long-term ownership. Note that other on-chain analysis tools may use a different measure. The ETH accumulation address balance has increased by 4.77 million ETH since January, a 32% growth rate, indicating comparable purchasing pressure. After ETH fell below $2,000 psychologically, March saw 45% of that growth (2.11M ETH). ETH's futures market open interest rose from 9.40M to 10.10M in three days, indicating derivative traders' rising confidence in the top cryptocurrency. If ETH finds a market trigger, present price levels might become important support and start a rise due to tremendous purchasing pressure. Pectra caused validator difficulties on test networks Holesky and Sepolia, but developers overcame them. Pectra launches on Hoodi, a new testnet, on Wednesday. After 30 days, developers will release Pectra on the mainnet if successful. Friday, ETH tests descending trendline support. A rally off the trendline might revisit $2,070 barrier for ETH. A sustained drop above the trendline might support ETH at $1,800. Further fall below $1,800 might push ETH below $1,500.