Does Strong GDP Matter if Fed Policy is King? Hayes’ Macro Take Revisited
Final government figures show the US economy ended 2024 on a stronger footing than initially estimated, though questions about momentum persist heading into 2025. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at a 2.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, revised slightly up from prior estimates of 2.3%, from robust consumer activity.
This strong GDP growth in Q4 2024 was largely driven by a strong 4% rise in consumer spending during the holiday season, alongside increased government expenditures. Inflation, however, remained elevated.
Additionally, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index (the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge) rose at an annual rate of 2.4%, exceeding the Fed’s 2% target.
Going by the entire 2024, the economy grew by 2.8%, a slight deceleration from the 2.9% growth observed in 2023.
However, despite the overall economic expansion, business investment declined. Corporate spending on equipment dropped sharply by 8.7% during the quarter, suggesting businesses grew increasingly cautious about large capital expenditures late last year.
The question remains if the US will be able to sustain this growth with Donald Trump’s trade wars, federal workforce reductions, and even the pledges of widespread immigrant deportations.
The tariffs especially could increase inflation and disrupt investment strategies, adding another complex layer to the current economic landscape. Although, at least for the crypto investors, tariffs shouldn’t matter, according to Arthur Hayes .
While this is good news for the US economy, a lot has happened since Q4 2024. The current US trade policies can impact the US economy the most, in addition to having a global impact. In case the tariffs escalate, they could spark retaliatory measures, leading to slower economic growth.
Then, the potential geopolitical tensions might have an influence as well. Ongoing conflicts or supply chain disruptions may increase costs and affect economic stability.
All things considered, going by the report, the US economy outperformed expectations in late 2024, but uncertainty remains for 2025. Inflation trends, Federal Reserve decisions, and the impact of trade policies will play a hugely important role in shaping the economic landscape.
If inflation continues to ease, we could see rate cuts that boost economic growth. On the other hand, if trade tensions rise or borrowing costs remain high, a slowdown may be on the horizon.
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.
My Playbook for Identifying High-Quality Protocols
The vast majority of tokens are just noise—hyped-up narratives, ponzis, or outright scams. The real challenge is filtering through the trash to find the few projects that actually matter.
To systematically identify these high-quality protocols, you need a rigorous framework based on fundamentals, not just hype.
Here’s a rough playbook:
1. Team & Execution
• Founders with credible backgrounds (prior successful startups, deep technical expertise, relevant industry experience).
• History of shipping consistently regardless of market conditions.
• A culture of execution > hype (less Twitter threads, more GitHub commits).
2. Tokenomics & Incentives
• The team and insiders are net buyers, not net sellers.
• Token has real utility beyond just governance or staking.
• Sustainable emissions model (not just farm-and-dump).
• Clear value accrual mechanism (fees, burns, buybacks, etc.).
3. Business Model & Product-Market Fit
• Solving a real problem that people are willing to pay for.
• Clear path to sustainable revenue (not just VC-funded incentives).
• Ideally, already generating meaningful revenue.
4. Competitive Advantage (Moat)
• Some kind of hard-to-replicate edge (network effects, proprietary tech, regulatory positioning, etc.).
• Defensibility against forks and copycats.
• A roadmap that stays ahead of the competition.
5. Macro Alignment
• Positioned to ride major secular trends (AI, RWA, stablecoins, DeFi resurgence, etc.).
• Product relevance increases with onboarding of new users (not just crypto-native yield farmers).
Where to Look?
Instead of chasing shiny new narratives, dig into fundamentals:
• Revenue-generating DeFi protocols (think LSTFi, real yield projects, RWA platforms).
• Infrastructure plays (modular blockchains, interoperability solutions, scalable DA layers).
• AI x Crypto hybrids (where blockchain actually adds value, not just AI-washing).
• Stablecoin and payments-focused projects (where adoption is already happening).
The game is about asymmetric bets on real businesses, not just speculative pumps. Find those <100 projects and accumulate while the market sleeps.
What’s your current watchlist?
*$BANANAS31: The Rise of a New Cryptocurrency Star*
The world of cryptocurrency is constantly evolving, with new players emerging on the scene and shaking up the market. One of the latest entrants to make a splash is $BANANAS31, a cryptocurrency that has been gaining traction and attention from investors and enthusiasts alike. In this article, we'll take a closer look at $BANANAS31 and explore its potential as a rising star in the cryptocurrency universe.
*What is $BANANAS31?*
$BANANAS31 is a decentralized cryptocurrency that operates on a blockchain network. It was created with the goal of providing a fast, secure, and transparent payment system that can be used by individuals and businesses around the world.
*Key Features of $BANANAS31*
Some of the key features that set $BANANAS31 apart from other cryptocurrencies include:
1. *Fast Transaction Times*: $BANANAS31 boasts fast transaction times, with most transactions being processed in under a minute.
2. *Low Fees*: The transaction fees associated with $BANANAS31 are significantly lower than those of many other cryptocurrencies.
3. *High-Level Security*: $BANANAS31 utilizes advanced cryptographic techniques to ensure the security and integrity of transactions.
4. *Decentralized Governance*: $BANANAS31 operates on a decentralized governance model, which allows holders to participate in decision-making processes.
*The Rise of $BANANAS31*
So, what's behind the rise of $BANANAS31? Several factors have contributed to its growing popularity:
1. *Increased Adoption*: $BANANAS31 has been gaining traction among investors, traders, and users, which has helped to drive up demand and increase its value.
2. *Partnerships and Collaborations*: $BANANAS31 has formed partnerships with several other companies and organizations, which has helped to expand its reach and credibility.
3. *Improved Infrastructure*: The $BANANAS31 team has been working to improve the cryptocurrency's infrastructure, including the development of new wallets and payment systems.
4. *Growing Community*: $BANANAS31 has a growing and active community of supporters, which has helped to drive interest and adoption.
*Challenges and Opportunities*
While $BANANAS31 has made significant progress, it still faces several challenges and opportunities:
1. *Regulatory Uncertainty*: $BANANAS31, like many other cryptocurrencies, operates in a regulatory gray area, which can create uncertainty and risk.
2. *Competition*: The cryptocurrency market is highly competitive, with many other players vying for attention and adoption.
3. *Scalability*: As $BANANAS31 grows, it will need to address scalability issues to ensure that it can handle increased traffic and transaction volume.