Prediction market data: Probability of U.S. government shutdown rises to 86%
ChainCatcher news, according to a report by Gelonghui, as of Tuesday morning local time, the latest data from the Polymarket prediction market shows that the market expects the risk of a US government shutdown this year to rise to 86%(up from 85% earlier). This probability has been increasing after the final negotiations between Trump and Congressional leaders failed to reach an agreement. Data from the Kalshi prediction market shows the probability of a US government shutdown at 83%, compared to about 70% before yesterday's White House meeting.
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