RedStone narxiRED

What if Bitcoin hasn’t reached its peak yet ? While markets digest their recent fluctuations, a projection based on historical signals puts the bullish cycle into perspective. According to a technical analysis supported by the AVIV ratio, a little-known behavioral indicator, Bitcoin could reach up to $330,000. Analyst Gert van Lagen links this hypothesis to sustained accumulation dynamics, indicating that the current bull run may be far from over. While whales accumulate and small holders flee out of fear , market technician Gert van Lagen recently highlighted on X a metric called the AVIV Ratio (Active Value to Invested Value), which measures the ratio between Bitcoin’s active capitalization, i.e., funds in motion, and its actual invested capitalization, excluding mining rewards. #BTC – A 3x move from here would be ordinary. Every cycle top coincided with the AVIV Ratio (orange) crossing the red line, its +3σ deviation. Today’s AVIV level is comparable to: → $200 before $1.2k (2013) → $3.7k before $20k (2017) → $13k before $69k (2021) pic.twitter.com/xqlG1ebWej According to him, this indicator, when it exceeds its threshold of +3 standard deviations (σ) above its historical average, systematically marks a cycle peak. He points out that this was the case during previous peaks : “BTC was worth $1,200 in 2013, nearly $20,000 in 2017, and about $69,000 in 2021”. However, to date, the AVIV Ratio has not yet crossed this threshold, leading him to estimate that “the price could climb to at least $330,000 in this cycle before a top is reached”. Van Lagen’s model draws attention for its ability to capture the imbalance between speculative activity and long-term investments. It is based on well-defined historical precedents. Here are the key points to remember : This ratio, although still little known in mainstream circles, establishes itself as an interesting alternative tool to monitor the ongoing bullish cycle, complementing more traditional indicators. Alongside technical signals, another phenomenon is attracting analysts’ attention : the decline in Bitcoin balances on OTC desks (over-the-counter), often used by institutional investors to buy or sell large volumes. According to CryptoQuant data , these balances have dropped from 166,500 BTC to 137,400 BTC this year, a decrease of over 29,000 BTC in a few months. This marked decline is interpreted as a strategic accumulation move. Moreover, this decline is mainly due to “Strategy’s aggressive buying” as well as the notable entry of Metaplanet, which acquired 10,000 BTC. Added to this are strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, whose cumulative net value now amounts to $128.18 billion, and BlackRock’s BTC holdings, estimated at more than $70 billion. Alongside this silent accumulation, a second predictive model developed by Bitcoin researcher Sminston With strengthens the hypothesis of a high cycle peak. Based on a 365-day simple moving average integrated into a power law model, it projects a price between $220,000 and $330,000 for this cycle. But yes, I'm sure this cycle has peaked. 🙄 – – – Bitcoin cycles @ power law fit, a la 365-day SMA At ~$110,000/coin today, the 365-dSMA is only touching the trendline; history shows each cycle moving 2-3x higher than this. Have a nice day! pic.twitter.com/jH51joDEIl His analysis, statistically supported by a coefficient of determination R²=0.96, challenges the idea that Bitcoin’s volatility diminishes over the years. According to him, “ bitcoin price cycles continue to show significant deviations from the trend, invalidating the idea of a progressively stabilizing market”. These signals, although optimistic, must be approached with caution. Neither the decline in OTC balances nor the statistical models can guarantee a linear upward trajectory. However, they outline a still dynamic market potentially far from its peak, especially in a context of sustained institutional accumulation, as evidenced by BlackRock’s control of 3 % of the supply . The combination of indicators still far from saturation and a change in behavior among major investors could, if sustained, pave the way to price levels never seen before. The market remains volatile, models remain imperfect, but signals converge: the final phase of this bull run could be more spectacular.

Equity futures will open deeply in the red tonight (at 6PM EST), following Saturday's US strikes on Iran. Crypto should wick lower as well, though likely not as much as it already traded down on Saturday. For me, the time to BTFD is first in the minutes following the Sunday open, and then again overnight before the US cash open. I am of the view the conflict will end soon following the US strikes. Furthermore, this plays out almost perfectly in line with the roadmpap laid out by Israel-Iran's 2024 clash (see chart below). Good luck trading

Bitcoin’s daily chart presents a potentially bearish outlook that traders should watch closely in the coming sessions. A confluence of technical signals is raising red flags for a deeper correction. 🔹 MACD Bearish Divergence The MACD indicator has been forming a clear bearish divergence since April 2025. While BTC made higher highs in price, the MACD made lower highs, signaling weakening bullish momentum. This is often a precursor to a potential reversal. 🔹 Head & Shoulders Top Formation Inside the highlighted yellow zone, we can identify a textbook head and shoulders pattern forming — a classic reversal structure. The left shoulder, head, and right shoulder are all clearly defined. The neckline support lies near the $101K–$102K level. 🔹 Box Range Breakdown Risk Price has been consolidating in this box range for weeks, but now Bitcoin is testing the lower boundary. A daily close with a large real black candlestick breaking below the neckline would confirm the bearish breakout. If this pattern plays out, a drop toward the $85K–$80K level becomes a realistic target. 🔹 Bollinger Bands Squeeze & Expansion Setup The Bollinger Bands are starting to widen after a tight squeeze, which often signals a coming volatility expansion. With the price tilting toward the lower band, the breakout may favor the downside unless bulls reclaim control quickly. 📉 Conclusion A bearish confirmation with volume could trigger a mid-term correction. Watch closely for a decisive breakdown candle. This week could be pivotal for BTC’s short-term trend. $BTC

If the US is not going to get more involved than this bombing raid, I suppose it won’t be long before we go up again. Tomorrow will open red, mid week recovery? Lots of if’s though

When President @realDonaldTrump puts on the red MAGA hat, he’s locked in and on target. 🎯🇺🇸