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What if markets followed a tempo that escapes economic logic? While the US GDP is declining, the S&P 500 is bouncing back after a sharp drop of nearly 20 %. This unexpected turnaround, fueled by contradictory signals, intrigues even in trading rooms. Indeed, at BNP Paribas, strategists wonder: does this rapid correction fit into a global tradition ? To understand it, they dive back into a century of stock market crash history. Between February 19 and April 8, 2024, the S&P 500 index lost nearly 20 %, falling from 6,144.15 to 4,982.77 points. This downward sequence, which BNP Paribas analysts called the “Tariff Crash”, attracted their attention because of its size, but also its context. Greg Boutle, Bénédicte Lowe, and Aurélie Dubost write in a note published this Friday : Recent stock behavior is consistent with previous crashes not related to a recession. They add: “Crashes that occur without a marked economic slowdown can be significant and volatile, but tend to be relatively short-lived.” By tracing market movements back to the 1920s using Dow Jones data, the authors show that significant drops can occur even without a major macroeconomic shock. Several conjunctural elements have confirmed this interpretation and supported the rebound observed at the end of the studied period : While BNP Paribas’s historical analysis tends to mitigate the severity of the “Tariff Crash”, strategists do not overlook the structural vulnerabilities that could plunge markets back into turmoil. In the same note, they warn of an alternative scenario: “stocks could retest their annual lows if a combination of downward earnings revisions and multiple compression materializes.” Multiple compression, which means a decline in stock valuations tied to earnings outlooks, could indeed challenge the current rebound, especially if growth deteriorates further. A resurgence of the market thus rests on an unstable balance between hopes for a de-escalation in trade tensions, conjunctural resilience, and corporate earnings momentum. Moreover, the authors remind us that economic forecasts, even those supported by long-term analyses, can prove to be out of sync with reality. “In 2022, our model projected an S&P 500 around 3,000 and VIX reaching 40 by mid-2023,” they note, before emphasizing that these levels were ultimately never reached. This observation calls for caution regarding current predictions. Especially since other signals, such as the sharp rise in bond yields observed late last week, indicate the market continues to oscillate between fear of a sudden slowdown and hope for a soft landing. Thus, any macroeconomic surprise or a resurgence of trade tensions could abruptly reverse the current trend. Ultimately, while the S&P 500’s rebound seems to validate the hypothesis of a crash without recession, the balance remains precarious. The precedent of 2022 reminds us that even the best-constructed scenarios can be contradicted by facts. For investors, the lesson is clear: market resilience should not be interpreted as a free pass. Between encouraging signs and lingering uncertainties , the coming weeks will be decisive in deciding between a simple technical correction and a deeper economic turnaround.

Bitcoin rewards and payments platform Fold is the first publicly traded company of its kind on the Nasdaq. Bitcoin (BTC) is going more mainstream with each passing week. On Friday, May 2, Fold held an Opening Bell ceremony at the Nasdaq headquarters to celebrate its public listing. Trading under the ticker $FLD, it is the first publicly traded company focused specifically on Bitcoin financial services. “Ringing the bell at Nasdaq is a celebration of the journey from Bitcoin’s edges to the heart of global finance. We’re proud to represent the everyday use of Bitcoin in a market long dominated by speculation,” Will Reeves, CEO of Fold. Fold operates a Bitcoin rewards app tied to credit card purchases. Every time users make purchases with their card, Fold gives them cashback, in Bitcoin. Users can then withdraw the earned Bitcoin to personal wallets, hold it, or spend it directly through Fold’s app. This creates a user-friendly way for consumers to gain exposure to Bitcoin through everyday spending. 📣 Introducing the Fold Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card It pays to be a Fold+ Credit Cardholder ☑️2% Unlimited Bitcoin Rewards ☑️Up to $250 Welcome Bonus ☑️Free Metal Card Join and climb your way to the top of the waitlist. $200,000 of prizes await! Sign-up link and blog 👇 pic.twitter.com/kSrvKAgXQA To provide these rewards, Fold has partnered with major credit card issuers. Its 2023 partnership with Visa enabled the company to expand into Europe, Latin America, and the Asia-Pacific regions. This allows users to receive Bitcoin cashback on nearly any purchase. Cashback is a popular way for credit card issuers to attract customers. For every purchase on a card, users get a small percentage of their purchase back into their account. These are either applied to their credit card bills or received as a deposit. The company went public on February 19, with a SPAC merger with FTAC Emerald Acquisition Corp. This is a popular route for private companies to go public, without the traditional initial public offering. IPO’s usually mean that companies face significant scrutiny from regulators, which can be very costly.

#BTCUSDT UPDATE After breaking free from the falling wedge pattern — a classic trap for the unwary