QCP: The bearish trend of BTC and ETH continues to rise, the election may bring about a "good news is exhausted" market situation again

QCP released a weekend summary stating that Thursday's core PCE data was slightly higher than expected (actual year-on-year growth of 2.7%, expected to be 2.6%). In contrast, Friday's non-farm payroll data (NFP) unexpectedly fell short of expectations (actual was 12,000, expected was 110,000), causing the US dollar index (DXY) to rebound and return to the level of 104. Bitcoin reached an all-time high on Tuesday night, trading up to $73.6k driven by market anticipation for election week. Despite Bitcoin's outstanding performance this week, Ethereum remained relatively flat and failed to break through the $2.7k mark. With strong ETF inflows in the background, Bitcoin saw net inflows exceeding $2.1 billion this week.

Despite Bitcoin falling below $69,000 on Friday we still see strong interest in this market with total open positions for BTC futures and BTC options remaining at high levels of $40.65 billion and $25.3 billion respectively . In the upcoming election week , implied short-term volatility for both BTC and ETH remains above a volatility rate of 72 as traders increase their efforts towards downside protection , leading to a continuous rise in put option skewness .

Although Trump is considered a hot candidate for next U.S president , his odds of winning on Polymarket have fallen from a high point of 66% down to 57% while Harris has support rate at around 43%. Regardless of outcome , we believe that elections will bring about "good news exhaustion" similar situation after Nashville bitcoin conference.