QCP Capital: This week’s spotlight is on Friday’s NFP report
The price action for Bitcoin has been nothing short of remarkable this couple of days, rising over 8% and breaking the $73k level. The robust inflow into spot ETFs, fresh monetary easing cycles across major economies, and increasing odds of victory for crypto-friendly presidential candidate Donald Trump have been positive catalysts.
With swing states like Nevada and Pennsylvania potentially tipping the scales, Trump appears to be gaining traction in the polls. Next week will finally mark the conclusion of the presidential race. Will the “Trump Trade” continue or will there be an unexpected turn of events?
This week’s spotlight is on Friday’s NFP report, a critical indicator of U.S. job market health, with consensus estimates around 110k — approximately half of the previous figure. As the final major data release before next Friday’s Fed meeting, the report is expected to lock in market bets for the Fed’s next move. Currently, markets are pricing in 1.6 cuts, with a 96.5% probability of a 25bps cut in November and a 75% chance of another 25bps cut in December.
Additionally, this week includes earnings releases from five of the “Magnificent 7” stocks—Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft. Each is expected to post average earnings growth of around 19-20%, but surprisingly marking the slowest pace in six quarters. While the impact on equities remains uncertain, these releases will be key indicators to monitor for broader market sentiment.
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